Resource Manager releases 2016/17 Seasonal Determination Outlook update

Monday 16 May, 2016

Entitlement holders are expected to start the 2016/17 season with low seasonal determinations if weather conditions remain dry.

Resource Manager for northern Victoria Mark Bailey today released an updated outlook for 2016/17 which found more inflows were needed to improve seasonal determinations. He urged entitlement holders to closely monitor the outlook and weather conditions when planning their water needs for the next season.

“We welcomed the recent rain after the hot and dry summer and autumn. Some water reached the major storages, but the catchments need much more rain before water levels rise substantially,” Dr Bailey said.

“Low seasonal determinations are likely early in 2016/17 even if inflow conditions improve. Average inflows through the season will allow 100 per cent seasonal determinations of high-reliability water shares in all systems.

“But the outlook is poor under continued dry conditions.”

Carried over allocation in the Murray and Goulburn systems are deliverable from the start of the season under all weather conditions. Deliveries in the Broken, Campaspe, Loddon, and Bullarook systems are less certain because of low volumes in storage and limited operating reserves.

“Continued dry conditions will affect the ability to deliver carryover in the Broken, Campaspe, Loddon, and Bullarook systems,” he said.

“All options to help water users continue to be explored.”

Dr Bailey noted the continued decline of the El Niño weather pattern and the issue of a La Niña watch by the Bureau of Meteorology. Typically during La Niña, winter-spring rainfall is above average over northern, central and eastern Australia.

“Future rainfall and inflows are always uncertain,” Dr Bailey said.

“We encourage entitlement holders to use the outlook and weather information when planning their water needs in 2016/17.”

Further Detail on Outlook for the 2016/17 Season

The Resource Manager used historical flow records to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflows to the major storages. The scenarios are:

  • Wet: Inflow volumes that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Average: Inflow volumes that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Dry: Inflow volumes that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

Murray System Outlook for 2016/17 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow ConditionsSimilar inflow season1 July 201615 August 201617 October 201615 February 2017
Wet 2010/11 21% 55% 100% 100%
Average 2005/6 0% 25% 52% 100%
Dry 2015/16 0% 7% 31% 48%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 0% 0% 0% 6%

 

 Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow ConditionsSimilar inflow season1 July 201615 August 201617 October 201615 February 2017
Wet 1992/93 34% 67% 100% 100%
Average 1991/92 13% 38% 73% 100%
Dry 2005/06 1% 19% 37% 49%
Extreme Dry 2002/03 0% 3% 12% 18%

 

Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow ConditionsSimilar inflow season1 July 201615 August 201617 October 201615 February 2017
Wet 1992/93 75% 100% 100% 100%
Average 1991/92 0% 41% 100% 100%
Dry 2005/06 0% 0% 1% 4%
Extreme Dry 20025/03 0% 0% 0% 0%

 

Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow ConditionsSimilar inflow season1 July 201615 August 201617 October 201615 February 2017
Wet 1992/93 34% 67% 100% 100%
Average 1991/92 0% 38% 73% 100%
Dry 2003/04 0% 0% 6% 15%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 0% 0% 0% 0%

 

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow ConditionsSimilar inflow season1 July 201615 August 201617 October 201615 February 2017
Wet 2010/11 9% 59% 100% 100%
Average 2005/06 0% 29% 100% 100%
Dry 2009/10 0% 0% 0% 4%
Extreme Dry 2002/03 0% 0% 0% 0%

 

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow ConditionsSimilar inflow season1 July 201615 August 201617 October 201615 February 2017
Wet 1996/97 0% 100% 100% 100%
Average 1990/91 0% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 2007/08 0% 0% 0% 0%
Extreme Dry 2015/16 0% 0% 0% 0%

 

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website.

The website also has outlooks based only on inflows similar to those received during autumn 2016. These ‘dry tercile’ outlooks use only 40 of the 120 years of records available and indicate possible seasonal determinations arising from similar recent conditions instead of all possible outcomes.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The first 2016/17 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Friday July 1, 2016 and will include an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems and an updated outlook.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.