Outlook for the 2016/17 season

Friday 15 July, 2016

“Inflows into the Broken, Goulburn, Loddon, Campaspe and Bullarook systems have tracked between the ‘Average’ and ‘Dry’ outlook categories in recent months, while the Murray system has tracked between the ‘Wet’ and ‘Average’ outlook categories,” Resource Manager Mark Bailey said.

“Continued rainfall is needed to maintain the better inflows rates observed during May, June and the first half of July.”

The Resource Manager uses historical inflow records to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflows to the major storages. The scenarios are:

  • Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 10

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Murray System Outlook

Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Goulburn System Outlook

Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Campaspe System Outlook

Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Loddon System Outlook

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Broken System Outlook

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Bullarook System Outlook

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website. The website also has outlooks based only on inflows similar to those received from April to June this year. These ‘tercile’ outlooks use only 40 of the 120 years of records available and indicate possible seasonal determinations arising from similar recent conditions instead of all possible outcomes.