Current Outlook

Wednesday 15 February, 2017

Northern Victorian Resource Manager Releases 2017/18 Seasonal Determination Outlook

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian water systems today released the first outlook for 2017/18 seasonal determinations.

Northern Victorian Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the Murray, Goulburn, and Loddon systems are expected to start the 2017/18 water year with seasonal determinations of about 30 per cent of high‑reliability water shares (HRWS) or better.

“The Campaspe system is expected to receive 100 per cent HRWS on the first 2017/18 announcement on July 3, 2017,” Dr Bailey said.

“Early season announcements in the Broken and Bullarook systems will be influenced by the volume carried over and catchment conditions.”

“Carryover will be deliverable in the Broken and Bullarook systems in all scenarios.

“All of the northern Victorian systems are expected to have seasonal determinations of 100% HRWS by mid October 2017 under average inflow conditions.

“The refilling of the northern Victorian storages during 2016 and continued milder weather offers a bright outlook for water availability next water year.

“Healthy reserves were established this season, especially the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems, and this is reflected in their outlooks for high-reliability water shares. 

“The current storage position trends means that it is unlikely that a low risk of spill will be declared in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems early in the 2017/18 season. Customers should factor this into their seasonal watering plans.”

Further detail on outlook for the 2017/18 season

The Resource Manager used historical flow records to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflows to the major storages. The scenarios are:

Wet: Inflow volumes that are greater in 10 years out of 100

Average: Inflow volumes that are greater in 50 years out of 100

Dry: Inflow volumes that are greater in 90 years out of 100

Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Broken and Bullarook systems.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 3 July 2017  15 August 2017 16 October 2017 15 February 2018
Wet 91% 100% 100% 100%
Average 71% 86% 100% 100%
Dry 52% 62% 85% 100%
Extreme Dry 46% 47% 51% 57%

 

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions  3 July 2017   15 August 2017  16 October 2017  15 February 2018
Wet 96% 100% 100% 100%
Average 46% 90% 100% 100%
Dry 37% 48% 79% 100%
Extreme Dry 34% 38% 44% 47%

 

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions  3 July 2017   15 August 2017  16 October 2017  15 February 2018
Wet 28% 33% 100% 100%
Average 0% 33% 100% 100%
Dry 0% 8% 36% 100%
Extreme Dry 0% 0% 0% 1%

 

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions  3 July 2017   15 August 2017  16 October 2017  15 February 2018
Wet 100% 100% 100% 100%
Average 0% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 0% 20% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 0% 0% 3% 20%

 

Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the Additional Scenarios page.

Outlooks for low-reliability water shares (LRWS) will be prepared during the 2017/18 season if seasonal determination are 100% HRWS and there is the possibility of LRWS being allocated.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The next 2016/17 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Wednesday 15 March, 2017.
  • The Resource Manager will update the seasonal determination outlook on Monday 15 May, 2017.
  • The first 2017/18 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 3 July, 2017 and will include an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems and an updated outlook.
     

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.