Current Outlook

Monday 16 October, 2017

The Resource Manager uses historical flow records to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflows to the major storages. The scenarios are:

Wet                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100

Average          Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100

Dry                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100

Extreme Dry   Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season  15 December 2017  15 February 2018
Wet 2016/17 100% 100%
Average 2005/06 100% 100%
Dry 2015/16 98% 100%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 92% 94%

 

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 December 2017  15 February 2018
Wet 2016/17 100% 100%
Average 2005/06 100% 100%
Dry 2015/16 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 50% 50%

 

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks.

An outlook for the Murray system is not provided because of the high likelihood of reaching 100 per cent HRWS this season.