Current Outlook

Tuesday 15 August, 2017

15 August Outlook for the 2017/18 season

The Resource Manager used historical flow records to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflows to the major storages. The scenarios are:

Wet: Inflow volumes that are greater in 10 years out of 100

Average: Inflow volumes that are greater in 50 years out of 100

Dry: Inflow volumes that are greater in 90 years out of 100

Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 16 October 2017  15 December 2017 15 February 2018
Wet 2016/17 100% 100% 100%
Average 2005/06 100% 100% 100%
Dry 2015/16 97% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 70% 70% 75%

 

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season  16 October 2017  15 December 2017  15 February 2018
Wet 2016/17 100% 100% 100%
Average 2005/06 91% 100% 100%
Dry 2015/16 61% 75% 82%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 46% 48% 50%

 

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season  16 October 2017 15 December 2017  15 February 2018
Wet 2016/17 100% 100% 100%
Average 2005/06 98% 100% 100%
Dry 2015/16 48% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 16% 22% 24%

  

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The next 2017/18 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Friday September 1, 2017.
  • The next risk of spill in the Murray and Campaspe systems will be issued on Monday September 11, 2017
     

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.