2013/14 Risk of Spill Announcements

10 January 2014 - Declaration of Low Risk of Spill for Campaspe System

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems today declared there was a low risk of spill in the Campaspe system. Following the Resource Manager’s declaration, water held in spillable water accounts (SWAs) in the Campaspe system will become available for use or trade.

“The low risk of spill declaration in the Campaspe system has resulted from falling inflows and storage levels at Lake Eppalock over the last month,” said Andrew Shields, Acting Resource Manager. “Water share holders will have the remaining balance of their SWAs returned to their Allocation Bank Accounts (ABAs) for use or trade today.”

“The low risk of spill declaration is made when the probability of spilling during the remainder of the season is less than 1 chance in 10,” explained Mr Shields. “A declaration is about the availability of allocated water resources and not a statement about the potential for flooding this season. It is a statistical assessment, which means it is still possible for Lake Eppalock to spill later this season. Customer allocation bank accounts will not be affected in any way if this happens.”

The volumes returned from SWAs to ABAs are available from the Victorian Water Register (waterregister.vic.gov.au) using the “Unused Water” option. The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au/. Total volumes in Lake Hume, Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock are reported at www.g-mwater.com.au/water-resources/storage-levels.

Trading Opportunities
Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to a net annual volume of 200 GL, or the volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50%, whichever is the lesser. The spill risk limit allows more than 200 GL of trade. Therefore, the net annual volume of 200 GL applies for the rest of this season, unless advised otherwise.

The volume owed to the Murray system from the Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade account is close to 200 GL. Trade from the Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems to the Victorian Murray, or to New South Wales and South Australia, is allowed while the total volume owed to the Murray is less than 200 GL. Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website https://waterregister.vic.gov.au/Public/Reports/InterValley.aspx.

Customers participating in the water trading market are reminded that the Murray-Darling Basin Authority has relaxed the rule controlling allocation trade from upstream of the Barmah Choke to downstream users. The Murray-Darling Basin Authority will regularly review the ability to trade across the Barmah Choke and may lift the relaxation at any time during the season.

Next Announcement on Risk of Spill
This is the last spill assessment for the 2013/14 season. The next risk of spill assessment for the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be issued on Tuesday 1 July 2014.

10 December 2013 - Declaration of Low Risk of Spill for Murray and Goulburn Systems

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems today declared there was a low risk of spill in the Murray and Goulburn systems. There was no declaration for the Campaspe system. Following the Resource Manager’s declaration, water held in spillable water accounts (SWAs) in the Murray and Goulburn systems will become available for use or trade.

“The low risk of spill declaration in the Murray and Goulburn systems has resulted from falling inflows and higher releases from both Lake Hume and Lake Eildon over the last month,” said Dr Mark Bailey, Resource Manager. “Water share holders will have the remaining balance of their SWAs returned to their Allocation Bank Accounts (ABAs) for use or trade today.”

“The risk of spill in the Campaspe system remains greater than a 1 chance in 10 probability,” said Dr Bailey. “This risk is falling as inflows decline and releases occur from Lake Eppalock for irrigation and environmental water deliveries.”

“The low risk of spill declaration is made when the probability of spilling during the remainder of the season is less than 1 chance in 10,” explained Dr Bailey. “A declaration is about the availability of allocated water resources and not a statement about the potential for flooding this season. It is a statistical assessment, which means it is still possible for Lake Hume or Lake Eildon to spill later this season. Customer allocation bank accounts will not be affected in any way if this happens.”

The volume in Campaspe spillable water accounts is available from the Victorian Water Register (waterregister.vic.gov.au) using the “Unused Water” option. The Victorian Water Register also contains information about the volume returned from SWAs to ABAs in the Murray and Goulburn systems. The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au/. Total volumes in Lake Hume, Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock are reported at www.g-mwater.com.au/water-resources/storage-levels.

Trading Opportunities
Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to a net annual volume of 200 GL, or the volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50%, whichever is the lesser. The spill risk limit now allows more than 200 GL of trade. Therefore, the net annual volume of 200 GL applies for the rest of this season, unless advised otherwise.

11 November 2013 - No Change to Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe Risk of Spill

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems today confirmed there is no change to the risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in November.

"A declaration of a low risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe is not possible in November,” said Dr Mark Bailey, Resource Manager. “The risk of spill in all three systems during 2013/14 remains higher than 10%, which is the threshold for a declaration that would return water quarantined in spillable water accounts to allocation bank accounts."

There have been no pre-releases from Lake Hume since early October. A small spill volume will be deducted from Murray spillable water accounts on 15 November following an update to bulk water accounts. Lake Hume is now below 90% of capacity with airspace continuing to increase as releases occur for irrigation and environmental flows in the River Murray.

There have been no spills to date this season from either Lake Eildon or Lake Eppalock. “Both storages have peaked and are being drawn down by releases for irrigator and environmental demand,” said Dr Bailey. "Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock still hold more than 90% of capacity. Each has about a 1 in 5 chance of spilling or needing pre-releases this season. The risk of spill from Lake Hume is higher at about 1 in 3."

"With Lake Hume, Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock now being drawn down, we are moving closer to a low risk of spill declaration for the three systems" said Dr Bailey.

The volumes in Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe spillable water accounts are available from the Victorian Water Register (waterregister.vic.gov.au) using the “Unused Water” option. The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au/. Total volumes in Lake Hume, Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock are reported at www.g-mwater.com.au/water-resources/storage-levels.

Trading Opportunities
A volume of 75 GL is available for trade from New South Wales into Victoria because the risk of spill in the Victorian Murray system is now less than 50%. Further availability of trade into Victoria from New South Wales will be reassessed on 10 December 2013 and the 10th day (or following business day) of each month thereafter.

Less than 200 GL is owed to the Murray system from the Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade account. Trade from the Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems to the Victorian Murray, or to New South Wales and South Australia, is allowed while the total volume owed to the Murray is less than 200 GL. Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website http://waterregister.vic.gov.au/Public/Reports/InterValley.aspx.

10 October 2013 - No Change to Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe Risk of Spill

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems today confirmed there is no change to the risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in October.

“A declaration of a low risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe is not possible in October,” said Dr Mark Bailey, Resource Manager. “The risk of spill in all three systems during 2013/14 remains much higher than 10%, which is the threshold for a declaration that would return water quarantined in spillable water accounts to allocation bank accounts.”

“Pre-releases to control airspace in Lake Hume ceased in early October as downstream irrigation and environmental demand commenced,” said Dr Bailey. “The total volume spilled from the Victorian share of Lake Hume during September 2013 was 225 gigalitres. Murray spillable water accounts had 100 GL deducted on 1 October, and the remaining 125 GL of the September spill volume will be deducted on 15 October. There is currently 213 gigalitres in Murray spillable water accounts.”

There have been no spills from Lake Eildon or Lake Eppalock to date this season. “Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock are both approaching 95% of capacity. There is airspace available and about a 1 in 3 chance of spills or pre-releases occurring during 2013/14,” said Dr Bailey. “It is important to note this does not equate to the risk of floods occurring downstream of these storages.”

“At this time, water share holders should expect water in spillable water accounts will not be available until late 2013 or early 2014,” said Dr Bailey. Water share holders are advised to plan their water use requirements accordingly.

Trading Opportunities
With the probability of spill in the Victorian Murray system greater than 50%, the volume of trade into Victoria from New South Wales is limited to the volume of trade from Victoria to New South Wales. The availability of trade into Victoria from New South Wales will be reassessed on 10 November 2013 and the 10th day (or following business day) of each month thereafter.

The volume of water owed to the Murray system from the Goulburn system in the inter-valley trade account is 200 GL. Trade will not be allowed from the Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems to the Victorian Murray, or to New South Wales and South Australia until the volume of water owed to the Murray is less than 200 GL. Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website https://waterregister.vic.gov.au/Public/Reports/InterValley.aspx.

These trade limits are part of the trade controls announced in November 2012 to prevent trade impacting on new season allocations.

10 September 2013 - No Change to Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe Risk of Spill

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems today confirmed there is no change to the risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in September.

"A declaration of a low risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe is not possible in September,” said Dr Mark Bailey, Resource Manager. “The risk of spill in all three systems during 2013/14 remains much higher than 10%, which is the threshold for a declaration that would return water quarantined in spillable water accounts to allocation bank accounts."

"At 99% of capacity, Lake Hume is effectively full. Pre-releases to control the airspace in the storage have occurred since early August,” said Dr Bailey. “The total volume spilled from the Victorian share of Lake Hume during August was 330 gigalitres. This volume will be deducted from Murray spillable water accounts and contribute to an increased seasonal determination on 16 September.”

“At 2 September 2013, there were 426 gigalitres in Murray spillable water accounts,” said Dr Bailey. “This volume will change on 16 September because of the posting of new allocation and deduction for pre-releases. Further adjustment of the Murray spill volume will occur because pre-releases from Lake Hume have continued into September.”

There have been no spills from Lake Eildon or Lake Eppalock to date this season. “Lake Eildon is holding 90% of capacity and Lake Eppalock is holding 85%. There is airspace available, but spring inflows show about a 1 in 2 chance of spills or pre-releases occurring,” according to Dr Bailey. “It is important to note this does not equate to the risk of floods occurring downstream of these storages.”

The volumes in Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe spillable water accounts are available from the Victorian Water Register (waterregister.vic.gov.au) using the “Unused Water” option. The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au/what-we-do/managing-rivers/river-murray-system/water-sharing. Total volumes in Lake Hume, Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock are reported at www.g-mwater.com.au/water-resources/storage-levels.

12 August 2013 - Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe Risk of Spill Remains Unchanged

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems today confirmed there is no change to the risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in August.

“A declaration of a low risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe is not possible in August,” said Dr Mark Bailey, Resource Manager. “The current risk of spill in all three systems during 2013/14 remains much higher than 10%, which is the threshold for a declaration that would return water quarantined in spillable water accounts to allocation bank accounts.”

“Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock are both holding more than 79% of capacity, and are rising after recent rainfall in the Goulburn and Campaspe catchments,” said Dr Bailey. “Lake Hume has risen from 65% to 85% of capacity in the last month and Victoria’s share of Dartmouth Reservoir is full, The Murray-Darling Basin Authority has recently started pre-releases from Lake Hume, which will lead to future deductions from spillable water accounts in the Murray system.”

“At this time, water share holders should expect water in spillable water accounts may not be available until late 2013 or early 2014,” said Dr Bailey. Water share holders are advised to plan their early season water use requirements accordingly.

Water share holders are also reminded that under the changes to carryover rules announced in November 2012, Lake Hume has replaced Dartmouth Reservoir as the primary indicator for spill in the Murray system.

Next Announcement on Risk of Spill

The next risk of spill assessment in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be issued on Tuesday 10 September 2013.

10 July - No Change to Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe Risk of Spill

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems today confirmed there is no change to the risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in July.

"A declaration of a low risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe is not possible in July," said Dr Mark Bailey, Resource Manager. "The risk of spill in all three systems during 2013/14 remains higher than 10%, which is the threshold for a declaration that would return water quarantined in spillable water accounts to allocation bank accounts."

"Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock are both above 70% of capacity and Lake Hume has risen to 65% capacity," said Dr Bailey. "The inflows that occur over the next three months will be important to the timing of a declaration, because highest inflows historically have occurred in this period. A declaration may be made earlier than in the last couple of seasons if the recent drier spell continues through winter and into spring."

"At this time, water share holders should expect water in spillable water accounts may not be available until late 2013 or early 2014," said Dr Bailey. Water share holders are advised to plan their early season water use requirements accordingly.

1 July 2013 - Further Detail on the Risk of Spill Assessment for the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe Systems

A low risk of spill declaration is not possible for the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems at this time. The probabilities of spill from Lake Hume, Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock are all higher than the 10% threshold for a declaration. Customers are reminded that under the changes to carryover rules announced in November 2012, Lake Hume has replaced Dartmouth Reservoir as the primary indicator for spill in the Murray system.

Water share holders should expect that water in spillable water accounts may not be available until later in 2013 or early in 2014, and should plan their early season water use requirements accordingly.

An updated probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be announced on 10 July 2013.

Risk of Spill

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