Current Outlook

Northern Victorian Resource Manager updates 2026/27 seasonal determination outlook

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian water systems today updated the outlooks for 2026/27 seasonal determinations.

Northern Victoria Resource Manager Mark Bailey said there had been little change since the early April outlook.

“Rainfall over the northern Victoria catchment areas in recent weeks has been welcome but it has not produced substantial flows into the storages,” Dr Bailey said. “Larger flows have historically come during the winter and spring months.”

“With the volumes available for allocation, opening seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems are likely to be low unless there is more rainfall and flows into the storages.

“The Broken and Bullarook systems are likely to start at zero per cent of high-reliability water shares.”

Dr Bailey noted that the outlooks rely on estimates of water use, system operating requirements and the amount of allocation carried over into the new water year. “Revisions to the estimates used to prepare the outlooks will influence the differences between each update.”

The risk of spill in the Murray system is expected to be about 35 per cent at the start of July 2026. In the Goulburn system, the risk is currently close to 10 per cent needed to make a low risk of spill declaration. The risk of spill is 25 per cent in the Campaspe system.

“Customers in these systems should factor the risk of spill into their plans for the remaining weeks of 2025/26,” said Dr Bailey.

Further detail on outlook for the 2026/27 season

The outlooks for 2026/27 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

• Wet                 Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
• Average          Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
• Dry                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
• Extreme Dry   Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise the estimated high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season for each scenario in the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe, Loddon, Broken and Bullarook systems.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the NVRM website Additional Scenarios webpage.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements 

• The first 2026/27 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Wednesday, 1 July 2026, and will include an updated outlook and an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.