Outlook for the 2026/27 season
The outlooks for 2026/27 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:
- Wet Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
- Average Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
- Dry Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
- Extreme Dry Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2021/22 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2023/24 |
78% |
99% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2025/26 |
59% |
65% |
69% |
85% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
47% |
48% |
48% |
49% |
Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
94% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2023/24 |
70% |
84% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2025/26 |
48% |
53% |
57% |
63% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
43% |
44% |
45% |
46% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2022/23 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2023/24 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2024/25 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
80% |
80% |
80% |
80% |
Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the NVRM website Additional Scenarios webpage.
Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements
- The next 2026/27 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Tuesday September 1, 2026.
- The risk of spill in the Murray and Campaspe systems will be updated on Thursday September 10, 2026.