Outlook - 15 August 2013

Thursday 15 August, 2013

The full inflow record was used to assess seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions have been produced using the following terminology:

Wet Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or 1 chance in 10) of being exceeded
Average Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or 5 chances in 10) of being exceeded
Dry Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or 9 chances in 10) of being exceeded


The following tables summarise possible seasonal determinations in the Murray system through the 2013/14 season.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions

15 October 2013

16 December 2013

17 February 2014














Seasonal determinations in the Goulburn system are expected to reach 100% HRWS by 15 September 2013 under all three inflow scenarios.

Broken system customers are expected to have 100% HRWS from mid October 2013 and 100% low-reliability water shares (LRWS) from mid December under all three inflow scenarios.

"Seasonal determinations against LRWS in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems will depend on usage and the volume of inflows during winter and spring,” said Dr Bailey. “The chances of LRWS seasonal determinations improve if inflows cause debits from spillable water accounts and water is used during periods of unregulated flows without release from storage."

Under average conditions, seasonal determinations against LRWS in the Campaspe system should commence in mid spring.