Outlook for the 2013/14 Season Updated
The full inflow record was used to assess seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions have been produced using the following terminology:
| Wet |
Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or 1 chance in 10) of being exceeded |
| Average |
Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or 5 chances in 10) of being exceeded |
| Dry |
Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or 9 chances in 10) of being exceeded |
The following tables summarise possible seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems through the 2013/14 season.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
|
Inflow Conditions
|
15 August 2013
|
15 October 2013
|
17 February 2014
|
|
Wet
|
61%
|
99%
|
100%
|
|
Average
|
49%
|
82%
|
100%
|
|
Dry
|
44%
|
62%
|
100%
|
Goulburn & Loddon Systems Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
|
Inflow Conditions
|
15 August 2013
|
15 October 2013
|
17 February 2014
|
|
Wet
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
Average
|
95%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
Dry
|
69%
|
97%
|
100%
|
“Seasonal determinations against low-reliability water shares (LRWS) in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems will depend on usage and the volume of inflows during winter and spring, said Dr Bailey. “The chances of LRWS seasonal determinations improve if inflows cause debits from spillable water accounts and water is used during periods of unregulated flows without release from storage.”
Under average conditions, Broken system customers are expected to have 100% HRWS by 15 October 2013 and 100% LRWS by late spring. Under dry conditions, seasonal determinations are unlikely to commence until early October but are expected to be 100% HRWS by mid-February.
Average conditions in the Campaspe system should allow customers to receive a seasonal determination of 100% LRWS by early summer.