Outlook - 15 May 2013

Northern Victorian Resource Manager Releases 2013/14 Seasonal Determination Outlook Update

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian water systems today released an updated outlook for 2013/14 seasonal determinations.

Resource Manager Dr Mark Bailey said, “The Campaspe system is expected to begin the 2013/14 season with 100% of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) on 1 July 2013. Lower seasonal determinations will be announced in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems. The potential for opening seasonal determinations in the Broken and Bullarook systems will be influenced by the volumes carried over by water share holders and inflows through the rest of May and June.”

“Under average inflow conditions, all northern Victorian systems are expected to have seasonal determinations of 100% HRWS by mid February 2014,” said Dr Bailey.

“Conditions have been very dry across northern Victorian catchments during summer and autumn. The current Bureau of Meteorology rainfall outlook indicates drier conditions will continue for most of Victoria over the next 3 months. However, the reserves established in systems during 2012/13 will help the availability of seasonal determinations. It should be noted that an early season reserve will be established in the Murray system in 2013/14 when the seasonal determination is between 30% and about 50% HRWS. A similar early season reserve has applied in the Goulburn system since 2010/11.”

“Higher use in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in the 2012/13 season will reduce the volume of allocation carried over compared to previous seasons,” said Dr Bailey. “It is currently expected that there will be approximately 900,000 ML carried over in the Murray system at the start of the season. Carryover in the Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be around 450,000 ML and 30,000 ML respectively. These volumes are highly dependent on final use and trade.”

“Expected volumes in storage and the carryover trends suggest it is unlikely that a low risk of spill will be declared in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems early in the 2013/14 season. If conditions remain dry, an earlier declaration than the last two seasons may be possible,” added Dr Bailey.

“Use trends in the Broken and Loddon systems indicate the volume of carried over allocation will be close to the maximum allowable. Carried over allocation will ensure water is available early in the Broken system.”

Further Detail on Outlook for the 2013/14 Season

The Resource Manager has used the full inflow record available to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions have been produced using the following terminology:

            Wet                  Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or 1 chance in 10) of being exceeded

            Average          Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or 5 chances in 10) of being exceeded

            Dry                  Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or 9 chances in 10) of being exceeded

The following tables summarise possible seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems through the season.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Goulburn & Loddon Systems Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares (LRWS) in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems will depend on use and the volume of inflows during winter and spring. The chances of LRWS seasonal determinations improve if inflows result in water being debited from spillable water accounts and water is used during periods of unregulated flows without release from storage.

Seasonal determinations in the Campaspe system are expected to be 100% HRWS under all inflow scenarios on 1 July 2013. Under average conditions, a 100% LRWS seasonal determination is expected by the end of spring. However, seasonal determinations of LRWS are unlikely under continuing dry conditions.

Customers in the Broken system are expected to receive 100% HRWS by 15 October 2013 under average conditions. Under dry conditions, seasonal determinations are unlikely to commence until early October but are expected to be 100% HRWS by mid February.

Further Detail on the Risk of Spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe Systems

The volumes held in Victoria’s share of Lake Hume and Dartmouth Reservoir, and in Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock, are lower than 12 months ago after much higher use this season. However, current assessments indicate that the risk of spill remains greater than 50% in all systems at the start of the 2013/14 season.

Customers are reminded that under the changes to carryover rules announced in November 2012, Lake Hume has replaced Dartmouth Reservoir as the primary indicator for spill in the Murray system.

Trading Opportunities

The probability of spill in the Victorian Murray system is anticipated to be greater than 50% early in 2013/14. If this is the case, trade into Victoria from New South Wales will be limited to matching the volume of trade out of Victoria to New South Wales early in the 2013/14 season. The availability of trade from New South Wales into the Victorian Murray system will be confirmed on 1 July 2013. This limit is part of trade controls announced in November 2012 to prevent trade impacting on new season allocations.

Customers participating in the water trading market are advised that the Murray-Darling Basin Authority will make an announcement early in the 2013/14 season about the ability to trade from upstream of the Barmah Choke to downstream users.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

• The first 2013/14 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 1 July 2013 and will include an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems and an updated seasonal outlook.

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Media Contact:          Dr Mark Bailey

Position:                      Resource Manager

Telephone:                  (03) 5826 3516