Outlook - 17 February 2014

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian water systems today released the first outlook for 2014/15 seasonal determinations.

“The Goulburn, Loddon and Murray systems are expected to receive seasonal determinations on 1 July 2014 and the Campaspe system is expected to start the 2014/15 season with a seasonal determination of 100% of high-reliability water shares (HRWS),” Resource Manager Dr Mark Bailey said. “Early season announcements in the Broken and Bullarook systems will be influenced by the volume carried over and catchment conditions.”

“All of the northern Victorian systems are expected to have seasonal determinations of 100% HRWS by mid December 2015 under average inflow conditions,” said Dr Bailey.

“Reserves contributing to the water available in the 2014/15 season have been established this season in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, and Campaspe systems. The availability of these reserves is reflected in the outlooks for high-reliability water share seasonal determinations in these systems,” said Dr Bailey. “Victoria’s allocation policy has always been to secure next year’s allocation to high-reliability entitlements before allocations are made to low-reliability entitlements.”

“The current storage position trends means that it is unlikely that a low risk of spill will be declared in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems early in the 2014/15 season,” added Dr Bailey. “Customers should factor this into their seasonal watering plans.”

“Murray system entitlement holders are reminded that carryover of unused allocation will be limited to 100% of their total entitlement as the 2014/15 season begins,” said Dr Bailey. “This limit applied in the Goulburn and Campaspe systems from the start of the 2013/14 season. At present, we are uncertain about how much carryover will occur in all systems. Weather conditions over the next few months will have a large bearing on irrigation and environmental water use through to the end of June 2014.”

Further Detail on Outlook for the 2014/15 Season
The Resource Manager has used the full inflow record available to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions have been produced using the following terminology:

On 1 July 2014, a seasonal determination is expected to be announced in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems under all inflow scenarios. The following tables summarise possible seasonal determinations through the season.

Seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares (LRWS) in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems will depend on usage and the volume of inflows during the 2014/15 season.

Seasonal determinations in the Campaspe system are expected to be 100% HRWS under all inflow scenarios on 1 July 2014. Inflow conditions will need to be wetter than average to make a 100% LRWS seasonal determination in the Campaspe system by the end of spring. Seasonal determinations to LRWS are unlikely in 2014/15 under dry conditions.

In the Broken system, customers are expected to receive an allocation of 100% HRWS by mid December 2014 under average conditions. Under dry conditions, seasonal determinations are expected to reach 100% HRWS by mid February 2015.

Further Detail on the Risk of Spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe Systems
Based on the volume expected to be held in Victoria’s share of Lake Hume and Dartmouth Reservoir, and the volumes in Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock at the end of 2013/14, there is the potential that spills may occur in all three systems in 2014/15.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

• The next seasonal determination announcement will be issued on Monday 17 March 2014.
• The Resource Manager will update the seasonal determination outlook on Thursday 15 May 2014.
• The first 2014/15 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Tuesday 1 July 2014 and will include an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.