Outlook for the 2014/15 season
The Broken system should receive 100 per cent HRWS by October 15 even under dry inflow conditions.
Dr Bailey said seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares (LRWS) in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems would depend on use and the volume of inflows during winter and spring, but should be available under wet conditions later in the season.
Possible LRWS seasonal determinations for the different inflow scenarios are being prepared and will be available in mid-August.
Date: July 15, 2014
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"The chances improve if inflows result in water being debited from spillable water accounts and water is used during periods of unregulated flows without release from storage," Dr Bailey said.
"Under average conditions Campaspe system LRWS seasonal determinations are expected to commence in mid-spring, but are unlikely to reach 100 per cent."
"There will be no LRWS seasonal determinations under dry conditions in the Campaspe system."
He said the full inflow record was used to assess seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:
Wet: Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or one chance in 10) of being exceeded.
Average: Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or five chances in 10) of being exceeded.
Dry: Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or nine chances in 10) of being exceeded
The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems through the 2014/15 season.
| Wet |
Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or 1 chance in 10) of being exceeded |
| Average |
Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or 5 chances in 10) of being exceeded |
| Dry |
Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or 9 chances in 10) of being exceeded |
The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems through the 2014/15 season.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
|
Inflow Conditions
|
15 August 2014
|
15 October 2015
|
16 February 2015
|
|
Wet
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
Average
|
88%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
Dry
|
82%
|
98%
|
100%
|
Goulburn & Loddon Systems Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
|
Inflow Conditions
|
15 August 2014
|
15 October 2014
|
16 February 2015
|
|
Wet
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
Average
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
Dry
|
94%
|
100%
|
100%
|
Next Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
An updated probability of spill assessment for the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be announced on August 11. The next seasonal determination announcement will be released on August 1 and will include an updated seasonal outlook.
For further information go to www.nvrm.net.au, waterregister.vic.gov.au, www.mdba.gov.au and www.g-mwater.com.au