Low-reliability outlooks for the 2014/15 season
Seasonal determinations of LRWS in the Murray and Goulburn systems are possible in early summer under wet inflow conditions, and later in summer under average inflow conditions.
The full available inflow record was used to assess the LRWS seasonal determinations scenarios for the Murray and Goulburn systems. The scenarios use the following terminology:
| Wet |
Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or one chance in 10) of being exceeded |
| Average |
Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or five chances in 10) of being exceeded |
| Dry |
Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or nine chances in 10) of being exceeded |
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of Low-Reliability Water Shares
|
Inflow Conditions
|
15 December 2014
|
16 February 2015
|
|
Wet
|
10%
|
100%
|
|
Average
|
0%
|
20%
|
|
Dry
|
0%
|
0%
|
Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of Low-Reliability Water Shares
|
Inflow Conditions
|
15 December 2014
|
16 February 2015
|
|
Wet
|
35%
|
90%
|
|
Average
|
0%
|
25%
|
|
Dry
|
0%
|
0%
|
Conditions in the Campaspe and Loddon systems will need to be wetter than average this season for seasonal determinations of LRWS to be available. There will be no LRWS seasonal determinations in the Campaspe or Loddon systems under average or dry conditions.
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
An updated probability of spill assessment for the Murray and Goulburn systems will be announced on Monday, November 10. The next seasonal determination announcement will be issued on Monday, November 17, 2014 and on the 15th (or next business day) of each month thereafter.
For further information go to www.nvrm.net.au, waterregister.vic.gov.au, www.mdba.gov.au and www.g-mwater.com.au