Low-reliability outlooks for the 2014/15 season
Seasonal determinations of LRWS in the Goulburn and Loddon systems are possible in early summer under wet and average conditions. The Murray system may receive LRWS seasonal determinations in mid-February 2015 under average conditions. Wet conditions could see LRWS seasonal determinations available towards the end of 2014.
"The low-reliability water share outlooks updated today enable entitlement holders to make more informed decisions about water availability this season," Dr Bailey said.
"The outlooks describe possible seasonal determinations under assumed use and system performance for different inflow conditions."
The full available inflow record was used to assess the LRWS seasonal determinations scenarios for the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems. The scenarios use the following terminology:
| Wet |
Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or one chance in 10) of being exceeded |
| Average |
Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or five chances in 10) of being exceeded |
| Dry |
Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or nine chances in 10) of being exceeded |
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of Low-Reliability Water Shares
|
Inflow Conditions
|
15 October 2014
|
15 December 2014
|
16 February 2015
|
|
Wet
|
0%
|
40%
|
100%
|
|
Average
|
0%
|
0%
|
30%
|
|
Dry
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
Goulburn & Loddon Systems Outlook for Seasonal Determination of Low-Reliability Water Shares
|
Inflow Conditions
|
15 October 2014
|
15 December 2014
|
16 February 2015
|
|
Wet
|
20%
|
80%
|
100%
|
|
Average
|
0%
|
25%
|
45%
|
|
Dry
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
Conditions in the Campaspe system will need to be wetter than average for seasonal determinations of LRWS to be available. There will be no LRWS seasonal determinations in the Campaspe system under average or dry conditions.
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
An updated probability of spill assessment for the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be announced on October 10. As seasonal determinations to HWRS in all systems have reached 100%, seasonal determination updates will now be issued monthly. The next seasonal determination announcement will be issued on Wednesday 15 October 2014 and on the 15th (or next business day) of each month thereafter.
For further information go to www.nvrm.net.au, waterregister.vic.gov.au, www.mdba.gov.au and www.g-mwater.com.au