Northern Victorian Resource Manager Releases 2015/16 Seasonal Determination Outlook
The Resource Manager for northern Victorian water systems today released the first outlook for 2015/16 seasonal determinations.
"The Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems are expected to receive high-reliability water shares (HRWS) seasonal determinations on July 1, 2015," Resource Manager Dr Mark Bailey said.
"Carryover of unused allocation and seasonal conditions will influence early seasonal determinations in the Broken and Bullarook systems.
"All of the northern Victorian systems are expected to have seasonal determinations of 100% HRWS by mid-December 2015 under average inflow conditions.
"The availability of the reserves established in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, and Campaspe systems this season is reflected in the outlooks for 2015/16 high-reliability water share seasonal determinations in these systems.
"Storages in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems are holding less water than at this time last year. This means that the risk of spill early in 2015/16 will be lower than previous years if inflows remain low over the next few months.
"At present, the volume of allocation to be carried over is uncertain. Weather conditions over the next few months will have a large bearing on water use through to the end of June 2015."
Further Detail on Outlook for the 2015/16 Season
The Resource Manager has used the full inflow records available to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions have been produced using the following terminology:
Wet: Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or one chance in 10) of being exceeded.
Average: Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or five chances in 10) of being exceeded.
Dry: Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or nine chances in 10) of being exceeded
On July 1, 2015, a seasonal determination is expected to be announced in the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems under all inflow scenarios. The following tables summarise possible seasonal determinations through the season.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
81% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
55% |
72% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
39% |
47% |
74% |
100% |
Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
84% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
49% |
82% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
39% |
50% |
80% |
100% |
Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
57% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
41% |
51% |
67% |
70% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
38% |
55% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
0% |
55% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
0% |
13% |
41% |
Dry conditions during much of 2014/15 mean reserves for 2015/16 are lower than for recent seasons. This reduces the likelihood of seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares (LRWS) in 2015/16. Availability for all systems will depend on use and inflows during the remainder of 2014/15 and into 2015/16. More information will be provided in the May 2015 update.
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
- The next seasonal determination announcement will be issued on Monday March 16, 2015.
- The Resource Manager will update the seasonal determination outlook on Friday May 15, 2015.
- The first 2015/16 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Wednesday July 1, 2015 and will include an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.
For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit http://www.nvrm.net.au/.