Murray, Goulburn and Loddon seasonal determinations increase
The Resource Manager for northern Victoria Dr Mark Bailey said inflows to the northern Victorian systems remained near the ‘Dry’ outlook category.
"This is consistent with recent seasonal rainfall and streamflow forecasts issued by the Bureau of Meteorology," he said.
The full inflow record was used to assess seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:
Wet: Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or 1 chance in 10) of being exceeded.
Average: Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or 5 chances in 10) of being exceeded.
Dry: Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or 9 chances in 10) of being exceeded.
Extreme dry: Inflow volumes that have 99 chances in 100 (or 9.9 chances in 10) of being exceeded.
The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Campaspe and Broken systems through the 2015/16 season.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
72% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
51% |
82% |
100% |
| Dry |
44% |
65% |
87% |
| Extreme Dry |
39% |
40% |
45% |
Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
74% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
51% |
83% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
45% |
50% |
59% |
Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
74% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
50% |
83% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
39% |
39% |
40% |
Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
87% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
55% |
71% |
74% |
| Extreme Dry |
50% |
50% |
50% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
74% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
53% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
23% |
53% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
2% |
2015/16 Low-Reliability Water Shares Outlooks
Reserves for 2015/16 are lower than in recent years and there is a reduced chance of seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares in all systems. Inflows and use will define if seasonal determinations of low reliability water shares occur in 2015/16.
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
- The next 2015/16 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday August 3, 2015.
For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit http://www.nvrm.net.au/. The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au/.
Information about El Niño is available from the Bureau of Meteorology at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso.
Details of the July to September rainfall outlook are available at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks.