Outlook - 15 July 2015

Wednesday 15 July, 2015

Murray, Goulburn and Loddon seasonal determinations increase

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria Dr Mark Bailey said inflows to the northern Victorian systems remained near the ‘Dry’ outlook category.

"This is consistent with recent seasonal rainfall and streamflow forecasts issued by the Bureau of Meteorology," he said.

The full inflow record was used to assess seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:

Wet: Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or 1 chance in 10) of being exceeded.
Average: Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or 5 chances in 10) of being exceeded.
Dry: Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or 9 chances in 10) of being exceeded.
Extreme dry: Inflow volumes that have 99 chances in 100 (or 9.9 chances in 10) of being exceeded.

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Campaspe and Broken systems through the 2015/16 season.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 17 August 2015 15 October 2015 15 February 2016
Wet 72% 100% 100%
Average 51% 82% 100%
Dry 44% 65% 87%
Extreme Dry 39% 40% 45%

 

Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 17 August 2015 15 October 2015 15 February 2016
Wet 100% 100% 100%
Average 74% 100% 100%
Dry 51% 83% 100%
Extreme Dry 45% 50% 59%

 

Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 17 August 2015 15 October 2015 15 February 2016
Wet 100% 100% 100%
Average 74% 100% 100%
Dry 50% 83% 100%
Extreme Dry 39% 39% 40%

 

Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 17 August 2015 15 October 2015 15 February 2016
Wet 100% 100% 100%
Average 87% 100% 100%
Dry 55% 71% 74%
Extreme Dry 50% 50% 50%

 

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 17 August 2015 15 October 2015 15 February 2016
Wet 74% 100% 100%
Average 53% 100% 100%
Dry 0% 23% 53%
Extreme Dry 0% 0% 2%

 

2015/16 Low-Reliability Water Shares Outlooks

Reserves for 2015/16 are lower than in recent years and there is a reduced chance of seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares in all systems. Inflows and use will define if seasonal determinations of low reliability water shares occur in 2015/16.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2015/16 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday August 3, 2015.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit http://www.nvrm.net.au/. The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au/.

Information about El Niño is available from the Bureau of Meteorology at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso.
Details of the July to September rainfall outlook are available at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks.