“In August, inflows into the Murray and Goulburn systems tracked between the ‘Wet’ and ‘Average’ outlook categories,” Dr Bailey said.
The Resource Manager uses historical inflow records to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflows to the major storages. The scenarios are:
Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
Goulburn and Loddon Systems Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for the Murray and Goulburn systems are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks. The website also has outlooks based only on inflows similar to those received from June to August this year. These ‘tercile’ outlooks use only 40 of the 120 years of records available and indicate possible seasonal determinations arising from similar recent conditions instead of all possible outcomes.