Further Detail on Outlook for the 2016/17 Season
The full inflow record was used to assess seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:
- Wet: Inflow volumes that are greater in 10 years out of 100
- Above Average: Inflow volumes that are greater in 30 years out of 100
- Average: Inflow volumes that are greater in 50 years out of 100
- Below Average: Inflow volumes that are greater in 70 years out of 100
- Dry: Inflow volumes that are greater in 90 years out of 100
- Very Dry: Inflow volumes that are greater in 95 years out of 100
- Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season in the Murray, Goulburn, Broken, Campaspe, Loddon and Bullarook systems through the 2016/17 season.
Murray System Outlook for 2016/17 Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
32% |
56% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Above Average |
11% |
41% |
79% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
0% |
31% |
56% |
87% |
100% |
| Below Average |
0% |
21% |
43% |
69% |
83% |
| Dry |
0% |
11% |
31% |
43% |
49% |
| Very Dry |
0% |
7% |
25% |
32% |
37% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
6% |
Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
42% |
85% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Above Average |
25% |
50% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
17% |
42% |
82% |
100% |
100% |
| Below Average |
8% |
32% |
63% |
92% |
100% |
| Dry |
2% |
20% |
38% |
45% |
50% |
| Very Dry |
0% |
13% |
30% |
34% |
38% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
4% |
12% |
12% |
20% |
Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Above Average |
62% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
19% |
43% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Below Average |
0% |
11% |
66% |
74% |
77% |
| Dry |
0% |
0% |
2% |
4% |
5% |
| Very Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
42% |
85% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Above Average |
24% |
50% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
0% |
42% |
82% |
100% |
100% |
| Below Average |
0% |
21% |
63% |
92% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
0% |
1% |
6% |
11% |
| Very Dry |
% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
30% |
81% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Above Average |
0% |
81% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
0% |
12% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Below Average |
0% |
0% |
38% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
3% |
| Very Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Above Average |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Below Average |
0% |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Very Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares (LRWS) in 2016/17 will require sustained wet conditions. Outlooks for LRWS will be prepared during the 2016/17 season if inflow conditions improve.
Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements
- The Resource Manager will update the seasonal determination outlook on Monday May 16, 2016.
- The first 2016/17 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Friday July 1, 2016 and will include an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.
For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.