The Resource Manager uses historical flow records to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflows to the major storages. The scenarios are:
Wet Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
Average Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
Dry Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
Extreme Dry Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.
Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2005/06 |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2015/16 |
98% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
92% |
94% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2005/06 |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2015/16 |
100% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
50% |
50% |
Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks.
An outlook for the Murray system is not provided because of the high likelihood of reaching 100 per cent HRWS this season.