Outlook for the 2018/19 season

The Resource Manager has used historical inflow records to assess seasonal determination outlooks. New guidelines recommend the use of climate behaviour post July 1975 to assess resource availability under the effects of climate change. During 2018/19, the Resource Manager is transitioning to the recommended climate behaviour for the seasonal determination outlooks.

A comparison of the seasonal determination outlooks using the revised characteristics and the full historical records for each system is available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks.

“Most of the northern Victorian systems tracked close to the ‘Dry’ outlook category in June. The Goulburn system tracked between the ‘Average’ and ‘Dry’ categories,” Dr Bailey said.

The Resource Manager uses historical flow records to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflows to the major storages. The scenarios are:

Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100

Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100

Dry:  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100

Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks.