Outlook for the 2019/20 season
The outlooks for 2019/20 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:
Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise the estimated high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season for each scenario in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Campaspe, Broken and Bullarook systems.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
62% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2005/06 |
42% |
79% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2015/16 |
34% |
49% |
60% |
70% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
24% |
28% |
30% |
33% |
Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
52% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2003/04 |
35% |
67% |
97% |
100% |
| Dry |
2008/09 |
16% |
35% |
41% |
44% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
5% |
11% |
15% |
18% |
Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2003/04 |
55% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2008/09 |
31% |
40% |
40% |
41% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
26% |
26% |
26% |
26% |
Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
52% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2003/04 |
35% |
67% |
97% |
100% |
| Dry |
2008/09 |
16% |
35% |
39% |
40% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
5% |
11% |
12% |
12% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
70% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2005/06 |
3% |
93% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2009/10 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Extreme Dry |
2002/03 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
1996/97 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
1990/91 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2007/08 |
20% |
74% |
100% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
2015/16 |
19% |
20% |
20% |
23% |
Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website ( www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks ).
Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements
- The next 2019/20 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday July 15, 2019 and will include an updated outlook.