Northern Victorian Resource Manager updates 2019/2020 seasonal determination outlook
The Resource Manager for northern Victorian water systems today updated the outlook for 2019/20 seasonal determinations.
Northern Victorian Resource Manager Mark Bailey said 2019/20 seasonal determinations against high‑reliability water shares (HRWS) will depend on flows received into the major storages.
“There has not been any significant resource improvement since the release of the previous outlook in April 2019,” Dr Bailey said.
“There are lower reserves available in the major storages this year.
“Without increased storage volumes, the opening seasonal determinations announced on July 1, 2019, are likely to be quite low.
“The recent rainfall began to wet the catchment, but did not add much water to the storages. Reserves will improve with runoff, which will only come with more rain.
“Carryover will be deliverable under all scenarios in the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems. At this stage, there is insufficient water to operate the Broken and Bullarook systems as usual for the entire 2019/20 season, but carryover will be deliverable early in the season. Operations will be extended as resource improvements occur.
“Based on assumed use to the end of 2018/19, allocation carried over into 2019/20 and climate-adjusted flow records, the risk of spill in the Goulburn system during 2019/20 is estimated to be less than 10 per cent. The risk in the Murray system is about 20 per cent. The Campaspe system risk of spill is about 30 per cent on current data.
“Customers may wish to factor this into their plans for the remaining months of 2018/19.”
Further detail on outlook for the 2019/20 season
The outlooks for 2019/20 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:
Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise the estimated high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season for each scenario in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Campaspe, Broken and Bullarook systems.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
28% |
67% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
9% |
41% |
78% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
30% |
45% |
64% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
18% |
19% |
26% |
Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
36% |
68% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
11% |
40% |
73% |
100% |
| Dry |
1% |
16% |
36% |
45% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
2% |
9% |
15% |
Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
92% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
23% |
70% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
17% |
22% |
32% |
33% |
| Extreme Dry |
17% |
17% |
17% |
17% |
Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
36% |
68% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
9% |
40% |
73% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
12% |
34% |
38% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
20% |
60% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
0% |
4% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
7% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website ( www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks ).
Outlooks for low-reliability water shares (LRWS) will be prepared during the 2019/20 season if seasonal determination are 100% HRWS and there is the possibility of LRWS being allocated.
Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements
- The first 2019/20 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 1 July 2019 and will include an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems and an updated outlook.