Outlook for the 2019/20 season
The outlooks for 2019/20 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:
Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.
“The Goulburn system has tracked between the ‘Average’ and ‘Dry’ outlook category,” Mr Shields said. “The Murray system has tracked closer to the ‘Dry’ outlook category.”
“Further rainfall is required to sustain inflows over the outlook periods to realise the potential seasonal determinations,” Mr Shields said.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
83% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2005/06 |
50% |
89% |
100% |
| Dry |
2015/16 |
42% |
50% |
56% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
35% |
37% |
39% |
Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
78% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2003/04 |
56% |
79% |
88% |
| Dry |
2008/09 |
45% |
50% |
55% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
44% |
47% |
50% |
Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2003/04 |
69% |
79% |
82% |
| Dry |
2008/09 |
50% |
50% |
51% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
50% |
50% |
50% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
64% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2005/06 |
21% |
55% |
85% |
| Dry |
2009/10 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Extreme Dry |
2002/03 |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website ( www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks ).
Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements
- The next 2019/20 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Tuesday October 1, 2019.