Outlook for the 2020/21 season
The outlooks for 2020/21 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:
Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.
“Flows into the Murray and Goulburn storages in September tracked about half way between the average and dry outlook categories,” Resource Manager Mark Bailey said.
“Flows to date in October have tracked closer to the average outlook category.”
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2017/18 |
90% |
100% |
| Dry |
2015/16 |
63% |
72% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
55% |
56% |
Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2013/14 |
95% |
100% |
| Dry |
2015/16 |
81% |
86% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
79% |
81% |
Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website ( www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks ).
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
- The next 2020/21 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 2 November 2020.
- The risk of spill in the Murray system will be updated on Tuesday 10 November 2020.