Outlook for the 2020/21 season
The outlooks for 2020/21 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:
Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.
“Flows into the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Broken storages in July tracked about half way between the average and dry outlook categories. Flows into the Loddon storages during July were closer to the dry outlook category,” Dr Bailey added.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2005/06 |
52% |
92% |
100% |
| Dry |
2015/16 |
39% |
46% |
53% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
28% |
30% |
32% |
Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
92% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2003/04 |
68% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2008/09 |
48% |
57% |
63% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
42% |
44% |
46% |
Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2003/04 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2008/09 |
51% |
52% |
52% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
45% |
45% |
45% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2005/06 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2009/10 |
51% |
68% |
79% |
| Extreme Dry |
2002/03 |
39% |
40% |
41% |
Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
1996/97 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
1990/91 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2007/08 |
40% |
64% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
2015/16 |
19% |
20% |
20% |
Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website ( www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks ).
Outlooks for low-reliability water shares (LRWS) will be prepared during the 2020/21 season if seasonal determination are 100% HRWS and there is the possibility of LRWS being allocated.
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
- The next 2020/21 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Tuesday September 1, 2020.
- The risk of spill in the Murray and Campaspe systems will be updated on Thursday September 10, 2020.