Outlook for the 2021/22 season
The outlooks for 2021/22 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:
Wet Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
Average Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
Dry Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
Extreme Dry Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
51% |
81% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2005/06 |
38% |
65% |
78% |
99% |
| Dry |
2015/16 |
29% |
46% |
55% |
60% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
21% |
21% |
26% |
30% |
Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
78% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2003/04 |
51% |
92% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2008/09 |
38% |
50% |
61% |
67% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
33% |
36% |
38% |
40% |
Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
78% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2003/04 |
51% |
92% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2008/09 |
33% |
42% |
47% |
47% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
33% |
33% |
33% |
33% |
Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2003/04 |
42% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2008/09 |
18% |
27% |
28% |
28% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
14% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2010/11 |
40% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2005/06 |
40% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2009/10 |
12% |
31% |
44% |
49% |
| Extreme Dry |
2002/03 |
8% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
1996/97 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
1990/91 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2007/08 |
44% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
2015/16 |
40% |
40% |
43% |
47% |
Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks.
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
- The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Monday July 12, 2021.
- The next 2021/22 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Thursday July 15, 2021 and will include an updated outlook.