Seasonal determination for 2024/25

Seasonal determination for 2024/25 update

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced an update of 2024/25 seasonal determinations and an updated determination outlook.

The Murray system seasonal determination increases from 63 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 68 per cent HRWS. The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 69 per cent HRWS to 73 per cent.

The Campaspe system increases from 100 per cent HRWS to 100 per cent HRWS and 10 per cent of low-reliability water shares (LRWS). The Broken system increases from five per cent HRWS to eight per cent HRWS and the Bullarook system remains unchanged at zero per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Andrew Shields said the updated carryover data contributed to most of the seasonal determination increases announced today.

“The carryover volumes in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems were slightly lower than the provisional volumes used in the opening announcement,” he said.

“This, along with higher flows into the major storages than our previous estimates, increased the amount available for allocation.”

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, 15 July are:

Outlook for the 2024/25 Season

The outlooks for 2024/25 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

• Wet                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
• Average          Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
• Dry                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
• Extreme Dry   Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

• The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Wednesday 10 July, 2024.
• The next 2024/25 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 15 July, 2024 and will include an updated outlook.