Seasonal determination increases for Murray, Broken and Campaspe systems

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2024/25 seasonal determinations.

The Murray system seasonal determination increases from 89 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 94 per cent HRWS.

The Broken system increases from 31 per cent HRWS to 34 per cent HRWS.

In the Campaspe system, the low-reliability water shares (LRWS) seasonal determination increases from 25 per cent LRWS to 33 per cent LRWS. The Campaspe system also has 100 per cent HRWS.

Seasonal determinations in the Goulburn, Loddon and Bullarook systems remain unchanged.  

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said seasonal determinations continued to gradually increase.

“The increases in the Murray, Broken and Campaspe systems came from a combination of factors,” he said.

“Flows into the storages were higher than our estimates and evaporation from the storages was lower, leaving more water available to allocate.

“Flows into the major storages are tracking between the dry and extreme dry inflow scenarios used in the outlooks.

“In the Bullarook system, customers with carryover allocation can access their water when needed.

"The amount of water needed before a seasonal determination can be made is reducing.”

Outlook for the 2024/25 Season

The outlooks for 2024/25 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

• Wet                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
• Average          Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
• Dry                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
• Extreme Dry   Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Additional Scenarios webpage.  

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade opportunity from the Goulburn, Broken, Campaspe and Loddon systems to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia is limited to the volume of opening trade opportunity available at the start of the water year, plus any additional trade opportunities available in October and December based on seasonal conditions and spills from legacy commitment reserves.

The release of trade opportunity on 15 October has been postponed. For more information please see the Victorian Water Register website.

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent.

The risk of spill is below 50 per cent, allowing 50 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.

The volume available for trade is updated monthly with each risk of spill announcement. 

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website.  

Customers can monitor trading opportunities from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke on the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website.   

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

• The next 2024/25 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Friday, 1 November  2024.
• The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Monday, 11 November  2024.