Goulburn and Loddon seasonal determinations increase to 100 per cent

Goulburn and Loddon seasonal determinations increase to 100 per cent

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2024/25 seasonal determinations.

Seasonal determinations in the Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 97 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 100 per cent HRWS. The Murray system increases from 79 per cent HRWS to 88 per cent HRWS.

In the Campaspe system, the low-reliability water shares (LRWS) seasonal determination increases from 22 per cent LRWS to 25 per cent LRWS. The Campaspe system also has 100 per cent HRWS.   

The Broken system increases from 24 per cent HRWS to 29 per cent HRWS.

The Bullarook system remains unchanged at 0 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said rainfall provided the resource improvements for today’s seasonal determination increases.

“The Murray and Goulburn systems were the main beneficiaries from rainfall in recent weeks,” he said. “While not large, the improvements in the Goulburn and Loddon systems were enough to increase the seasonal determination to 100 per cent of high-reliability water shares.

“Flows into the Campaspe and Broken systems were also above our conservative estimates. This led to the seasonal determination increases in these systems.

“The rain did not get the Bullarook system across the line. More flow into the Bullarook system storages is needed before a seasonal determination can be made. Customers with carryover allocation can access their water when needed.”

Outlook for the 2024/25 Season

The outlooks for 2024/25 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

• Wet                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
• Average          Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
• Dry                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
• Extreme Dry   Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. As the risk of spill from Victoria’s share of Hume and Dartmouth is currently greater than 50 per cent, allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is not possible. The volume available for trade is updated monthly with each risk of spill announcement. 

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website at waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-trading/allocation-trading.

Customers can monitor trading opportunities from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke on the MDBA website at www.mdba.gov.au/managing-water/water-markets-trade/interstate-water-trade/barmah-choke-trade-balance

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

• The next 2024/25 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Tuesday, 1 October 2024.
• The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Thursday, 10 October 2024.