Small seasonal determination increase

Small seasonal determination increases

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2024/25 seasonal determinations.

The Murray system seasonal determination increases from 73 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 76 per cent HRWS. The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 89 per cent HRWS to 92 per cent.

In the Campaspe system, the low-reliability water shares (LRWS) seasonal determination increases from 13 per cent LRWS to 15 per cent LRWS. The Campaspe system also has 100 per cent HRWS.

The Broken system increases from 17 per cent HRWS to 20 per cent HRWS.

The Bullarook system remains unchanged at 0 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said drier conditions in recent weeks meant there was little additional water to allocate.

“Flows into major storages have gradually declined since the last assessment,” he said.

“Those flows remain greater than our conservative estimates, which is the main factor in the seasonal determination increases announced today.

“Further rainfall that creates flows in the catchment areas and into the storages is needed before larger seasonal determination increases are possible.”

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Thursday, 15 August are:

Outlook for the 2024/25 Season

The outlooks for 2024/25 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

• Wet                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
• Average          Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
• Dry                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
• Extreme Dry   Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

• The next 2024/25 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday, 2 September 2024.
• The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Tuesday, 10 September 2024.