Outlook - 15 October 2025

Wednesday 15 October, 2025

The outlooks for 2025/26 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

  • Wet                 Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
  • Average          Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
  • Dry                  Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
  • Extreme Dry   Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 December 2025 16 February 2026
Wet 2021/22 100% 100%
Average 2014/15 100% 100%
Dry 2015/16 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 92% 93%

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 December 2025 16 February 2026
Wet 2016/17 100% 100%
Average 2021/22 75% 84%
Dry

2024/25

61% 66%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 57% 59%

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 December 2025 16 February 2026
Wet 2016/17 100% 100%
Average 2021/22 78% 100%
Dry 2018/19 39% 45%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 27% 29%

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 December 2025 16 February 2026
Wet

2016/17

100% 100%
Average 2012/13 66% 100%
Dry 2007/08 0% 0%
Extreme Dry 2015/16 0% 0%

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Additional Scenarios webpage

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The next 2025/26 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday, 3 November 2025.