Outlook for the 2026/27 Season
The outlooks for 2026/27 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:
- Wet Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
- Average Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
- Dry Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
- Extreme Dry Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise the estimated high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season for each scenario in the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe, Loddon, Broken and Bullarook systems.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
45% |
71% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
37% |
44% |
82% |
100% |
| Dry |
12% |
33% |
48% |
68% |
| Extreme Dry |
5% |
13% |
31% |
35% |
Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
40% |
81% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
12% |
41% |
78% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
16% |
35% |
45% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
1% |
8% |
13% |
Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
13% |
68% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2% |
9% |
21% |
28% |
| Extreme Dry |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
52% |
71% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
0% |
49% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
16% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
40% |
81% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
8% |
41% |
78% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
0% |
18% |
31% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
0% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Extreme Dry |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the NVRM Additional Scenarios webpage.
Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements (updated 17 March 2026)
- The final seasonal determination announcement for 2025/26 will be released on Wednesday, 1 April, 2026.
- An updated outlook for 2026/27 seasonal determinations will be released on Wednesday, 1 April, 2026.
- The first 2026/27 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Wednesday, 1 July 2026 and will include an updated outlook and an assessment of the probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.