Outlook for the 2018/19 season

Monday 2 July, 2018

The Resource Manager has used historical inflow records to assess seasonal determination outlooks.

New guidelines recommend the use of climate behaviour post July 1975 to assess resource availability under the effects of climate change. During 2018/19, the Resource Manager is transitioning to the recommended climate behaviour for the seasonal determination outlooks.

A comparison of the seasonal determination outlooks using the revised characteristics and the full historical records for each system is available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks.

“Most of the northern Victorian systems have tracked close to the ‘Dry’ outlook category in recent months,” Resource Manager Mark Bailey said.

The Resource Manager uses historical flow records to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflows to the major storages. The scenarios are:

Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100

Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100

Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100

Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Broken and Bullarook systems.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 August 2018 15 October 2018 17 December 2018 15 February 2019
Wet 2016/17 70% 100% 100% 100%
Average 2005/06 56% 90% 100% 100%
Dry 2015/16 47% 73% 89% 100%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 44% 46% 47% 52%

 

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 August 2018 15 October 2018 17 December 2018 15 February 2019
Wet 2010/11 79% 100% 100% 100%
Average 2003/04 54% 96% 100% 100%
Dry 2008/09 40% 58% 72% 79%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 33% 38% 39% 41%

 

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 August 2018 15 October 2018 17 December 2018 15 February 2019
Wet 2010/11 59% 100% 100% 100%
Average 2005/06 43% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 2009/10 0% 25% 41% 48%
Extreme Dry 2002/03 0% 0% 1% 2%

 

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 August 2018 15 October 2018 17 December 2018 15 February 2019
Wet 1996/97 100% 100% 100% 100%
Average 1990/91 0% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 2007/08 0% 15% 34% 36%
Extreme Dry 2015/16 0% 0% 0% 0%

 

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for the Goulburn and Loddon systems are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks .