Outlook for the 2017/18 season

Monday 17 July, 2017

Outlook for the 2017/18 season

The Resource Manager used historical flow records to assess the seasonal determinations for a range of inflows to the major storages. The scenarios are:

Wet: Inflow volumes that are greater in 10 years out of 100

Average: Inflow volumes that are greater in 50 years out of 100

Dry: Inflow volumes that are greater in 90 years out of 100

Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise possible high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season and include a reference year to help users recognise the possible inflow conditions.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 August 2017  16 October 2017 15 December 2017 15 February 2018
Wet 2016/17 100% 100% 100% 100%
Average 2005/06 83% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 2015/16 72% 90% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 66% 66% 67% 70%

 

Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season  15 August 2017  16 October 2017  15 December 2017  15 February 2018
Wet 2010/11 78% 100% 100% 100%
Average 2003/04 54% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 2008/09 41% 62% 77% 85%
Extreme Dry 2006/07 36% 41% 43% 45%

 

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 August 2017  16 October 2017 15 December 2017  15 February 2018
Wet 2010/11 41% 100% 100% 100%
Average 2005/06 41% 87% 100% 100%
Dry 2009/10 19% 48% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 2002/03 4% 14% 17% 18%

 

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions Similar inflow season 15 August 2017 16 October 2017  15 December 2017  15 February 2018
Wet 1996/97 100% 100% 100% 100%
Average 1990/91 100% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 2007/08 20% 62% 100% 100%
Extreme Dry 2015/16 16% 19% 20% 22%

 

Seasonal determinations under additional scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The next 2017/18 seasonal detemrination announcement will be released on Tuesday 1 August, 2017.
  • The next risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be issued on Thursday 10 August 2017.
     

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au