Outlook for the 2019/20 season

Monday 1 April, 2019

Outlook for the 2019/20 season

The outlooks for 2019/20 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:

Wet: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100

Average: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100

Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100

Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100

The following tables summarise the estimated high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season for each scenario in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Campaspe, Broken and Bullarook systems.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2019 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 17 February 2020
Wet 32% 62% 100% 100%
Average  12%  37% 74% 100%
Dry  0%  24% 40% 53%
Extreme Dry  0%  14% 18% 21%

 

Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2019 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 17 February 2020
Wet 42% 84% 100% 100%
Average  15% 42% 81% 100%
Dry 3%  19% 37% 46%
Extreme Dry  0% 4% 11% 16%

 

Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2019 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 17 February 2020
Wet 100% 100%  100% 100%
Average 26%  73% 100% 100%
Dry  18%  24% 33% 34%
Extreme Dry  18% 18% 18% 18%

 

Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2019 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 17 February 2020
Wet  42%  84% 100% 100%
Average  12%  42% 81% 100%
Dry  0%  2% 30% 36%
Extreme Dry  0%  0% 0% 0%

 

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2019 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 17 February 2020
Wet 33% 69% 100% 100%
Average  0%  7% 100% 100%
Dry  0%  0% 0% 8%
Extreme Dry  0%  0% 0% 0%

 

Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 1 July 2019 15 August 2019 15 October 2019 17 February 2020
Wet 6% 100% 100% 100%
Average  0%  100% 100% 100%
Dry  0%  0% 1% 25%
Extreme Dry  0%  0% 0% 0%

 

Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website ( www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks ).

Outlooks for low-reliability water shares (LRWS) will be prepared during the 2019/20 season if seasonal determination are 100% HRWS and there is the possibility of LRWS being allocated.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • An updated 2019/20 seasonal determination outlook will be released on Wednesday 15 May 2019.