The outlooks for 2022/23 seasonal determinations are based on historical flow records that have been adjusted to match climate conditions observed since 1975. The outlook scenarios presented are:
Wet Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100
Average Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100
Dry Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100
Extreme Dry Inflow volumes to major storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100
The following tables summarise the estimated high-reliability water share seasonal determinations through the season for each scenario in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Campaspe, Broken and Bullarook systems.
Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2021/22 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2014/15 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2015/16 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Goulburn and Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2020/21 |
92% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2015/16 |
77% |
98% |
100% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
70% |
74% |
78% |
82% |
Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2021/22 |
92% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2009/10 |
73% |
83% |
84% |
84% |
| Extreme Dry |
2015/16 |
70% |
70% |
70% |
70% |
Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
49% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2021/22 |
49% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2018/19 |
49% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
2006/07 |
39% |
42% |
43% |
44% |
Bullarook System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares
| Wet |
2016/17 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Average |
2012/13 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Dry |
2007/08 |
24% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| Extreme Dry |
2015/16 |
19% |
23% |
27% |
29% |
Wetter than average inflow conditions for a sustained period are needed in the Murray system before low-reliability water share seasonal determinations can commence.
Additional outlook scenarios for each system are available from the Northern Victorian Resource Manager website www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks.
Upcoming Resource Manager announcements
- The next 2022/23 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 1 August 2022.
- The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Wednesday 10 August 2022.