The following information is provided to help inform the water market about the risk of a spill from the Murray, Campaspe and Goulburn systems in the early part of the 2023/24 water year.
Many variables influence the risk of a spill from spillable water accounts, including storage volumes, catchment conditions, inflows and irrigation and environmental water demands. The charts below present the ranked historical inflow to each storage (please note inflow data for the period before the construction of the dam are based on modelled inflows) for the period of 1 July to 31 October.
The green line in each chart is the estimated airspace on 1 July 2023 (i.e. volume remaining to fill the reservoir) based on assumed use and losses to the end of June 2023. Importantly, no further inflow before 1 July is assumed to occur.
The volumes above the line indicate possible outcomes based on observed inflows. The outcomes do not represent likely spill volumes, because required releases are not included in the analysis.
The volumes of water in each system that will be subject to spill will depend on the remaining use and trade this season as well as seasonal determinations through 2023/24.
This information is indicative and based on various assumptions. Water market participants should consider the range of uncertainty when using this information to inform their decisions.