2021/22 Risk of Spill Announcements

10 June 2022 - Final 2021/22 Murray system risk of spill update

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced the final 2021/22 risk of spill for the Murray system.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said further deductions from spillable water accounts in the Murray system would occur with the announcement.

“The Murray-Darling Basin Authority started pre-releases from Lake Hume in May,” Dr Bailey said.

“The volume of flow that could not be stored in Victoria’s share of Lake Hume during May was greater than the 27 gigalitres remaining in spillable water accounts.

“All of the remaining allocation held in Murray spillable water accounts will be deducted with today’s announcement.

“With the pre-releases from Lake Hume still underway, the Murray system will start 2022/23 with a very high risk of spill. Murray entitlement holders should understand that deductions from spillable water accounts during 2022/23 are likely.

“The risk of spill in the Goulburn system is currently about 70 per cent, and the risk on the Campaspe system is about 40 per cent.”

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent.

As the current risk of spill in the Murray system is greater than 50 per cent, trade from New South Wales to Victoria remains restricted unless trade from Victoria to New South Wales creates new trade opportunities. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the Victorian Water Register website.

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in 2022/23 will be announced on Friday July 1, 2022.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.

Refer to the MDBA website for Victoria’s share of Murray storages.

10 May 2022 - Murray system risk of spill update

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the risk of spill in the Murray system.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said Victoria’s share of the upper Murray storages were at capacity and the risk of spill remained greater than the 10 per cent threshold needed for a declaration of a low risk of spill.

“During April, about 6.9 GL could not be harvested in Victoria’s share of Lake Hume,” Dr Bailey said.

“This amounts to a spill from spillable water accounts and a 20 per cent deduction will occur with today’s announcement.

“Further deductions from spillable water accounts are possible in June if flows into Lake Hume during May cannot be stored in Victoria’s share.

“Please remember that any water remaining in spillable water accounts on June 10 will be returned to allocation accounts. Effectively, this action is being taken as a declaration of a low risk of spill that will give entitlement holders the opportunity to make decisions about remaining allocation before the end of the 2021/22 water year.”

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent.

As the current risk of spill in the Murray system is greater than 50 per cent, trade from New South Wales to Victoria will be stopped for the remaining months of 2021/22 unless trade from Victoria to New South Wales creates new trade opportunities. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the Victorian Water Register website.

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray system in 2021/22 will be updated on Friday June 10, 2022.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.

Refer to the MDBA website for Victoria’s share of Murray storages.

11 April 2022 - No change to Murray system risk of spill

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the risk of spill in the Murray system.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said Victoria’s share of the upper Murray storages were almost at capacity and the risk of spill remained greater than the 10 per cent threshold needed for a declaration.

“The risk of spill from Victoria’s share of Lake Hume is about 70 per cent,” Dr Bailey said.

“Victoria’s shares of Lake Hume and Dartmouth Reservoir were close to full at the end of March,” Dr Bailey explained. “Flows into both storages have been more than Victoria’s share of the volume released to meet downstream demands.

“It is unusual for Victoria’s share of Lake Hume and Dartmouth Reservoir to be full at this time of year,” Dr Bailey added. “This is first time since spillable water accounts were introduced that a low risk of spill declaration has not been made by April.”

“To allow entitlement holders the opportunity to make decisions about the water held in spillable water accounts, a low risk of spill will be declared on 10 June at the latest,” Dr Bailey noted.

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent.

As the current risk of spill in the Murray system is greater than 50 per cent, trade from New South Wales to Victoria is not available. This volume is updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the Victorian Water Register website.

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray system in 2021/22 will be updated on Tuesday May 10, 2022.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.

Refer to the MDBA website for Victoria’s share of Murray storages.

10 March 2022 - No change to Murray system risk of spill

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the risk of spill in the Murray system.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said Lake Hume remained close to capacity and the risk of spill remained greater than the 10 per cent threshold needed for a declaration.

“The risk of spill from Victoria’s share of Lake Hume is about 30 per cent,” Dr Bailey said.

“Victoria’s shares of Lake Hume and Dartmouth Reservoir were almost full at the end of February,” Dr Bailey explained. “This means there are scenarios in 2021/22 where releases from Lake Hume are needed to control inflows from the upper catchment and potentially Dartmouth.

“The volume in Lake Hume this year is heavily influenced by the continuing high flows from the Murrumbidgee River and the lower Darling River,” Dr Bailey said. “It is an operating situation not seen since the mid-1990s.”

Weather conditions and irrigation demand will determine the prospects of a low risk of spill declaration in April 2022.

“Drier conditions in the River Murray System and increased demand will see more water released from Lake Hume, which increases airspace and lowers the risk of spill,” Dr Bailey said.

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. Trade adjustments will occur in Dartmouth where there is storage capacity available before occurring in Hume.

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 35 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria to keep the risk of spill in Hume and Dartmouth below 50 per cent. This volume is updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the Victorian Water Register website.

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray system in 2021/22 will be updated on Monday 11 April 2022.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.

Refer to the MDBA website for Victoria’s share of Murray storages.

10 February 2022 - No change to Murray system risk of spill

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the risk of spill in the Murray system.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the need for further deductions from spillable water accounts in the Murray system meant a low risk of spill declaration is not yet possible.

“Releases from Lake Hume to manage inflows occurred during January 2022, which means there will be deductions from spillable water accounts with the next seasonal determination update on February 15,” Dr Bailey said. 

“A low risk of spill cannot be declared while this situation exists. 

“The prospects of a low risk of spill declaration in March 2022 depend on the inflows to Lake Hume. Dry weather and demand for water during February 2022 would help create airspace and reduce the likelihood of further spills.”

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. Trade adjustments will occur in Dartmouth where there is storage capacity available before occurring in Hume.

The volume in Hume Reservoir is expected to reduce in the coming months as demand for water increases and inflows decrease. As a result, the 200 GL net annual allocation trade limit will apply. There is currently about 90 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria available under this limit. This volume will be updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the Victorian Water Register website.

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray system in 2021/22 will be updated on Thursday 10 March 2022.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.

Refer to the MDBA website for Victoria’s share of Murray storages.

10 January 2022 - No change to Murray system risk of spill

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the risk of spill in the Murray system.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the possibility of further deductions from spillable water accounts and current conditions mean a low risk of spill declaration is not yet possible.

“Releases from Lake Hume to manage inflows during December 2021 may influence the January 2022 seasonal determination for Murray low-reliability water shares,” said Dr Bailey.

“A low risk of spill cannot be declared while that potential influence exists,” explained Dr Bailey. “Our assessment must consider all storage operations between seasonal determination updates.

“The risk of further spill from Lake Hume is decreasing as time passes, but a low risk declaration cannot be made in January 2022 with Lake Hume close to 99 per cent of capacity.”

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. Trade adjustments will occur in Dartmouth where the risk of spill is less than 5 per cent.

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 68 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria to keep the risk at Dartmouth below 50 per cent. The volume available for trade has reduced since the last announcement due to increasing storage levels at Dartmouth. This volume will be updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the Victorian Water Register website waterregister.vic.gov.au/about/news/267-trial-of-improved-trade-adjustment-methods.

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray system in 2021/22 will be updated on Thursday February 10, 2022.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.

Refer to www.mdba.gov.au/river-information/water-sharing for Victoria’s share of Murray storages.

10 December 2021 -  No change to Murray system risk of spill

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the risk of spill in the Murray system.

 Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the risk of spill in the Murray system during 2021/22 remained above the 10 per cent threshold needed for a declaration.

 “During the past month, the Murray-Darling Basin Authority have released water from Lake Hume to manage inflows from rain in the Upper Murray catchments,” said Dr Bailey. “This means the risk of spill is still effectively 100 per cent.

 “Further deductions from spillable water accounts will be confirmed in the December 15 seasonal determination update to account for the Lake Hume releases made in recent weeks,” said Dr Bailey.

 Dr Bailey reiterated the risk of spill assessment related to water accounting and did not describe the chances of flooding in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems this season.

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. While the risk of spill at Lake Hume is effectively 100 per cent, the risk of spill at Dartmouth is less than 5 per cent and this is where trade adjustments will occur.

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria as this would increase the risk at Dartmouth to about 40 per cent. This volume will be updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the Victorian Water Register website waterregister.vic.gov.au/about/news/267-trial-of-improved-trade-adjustment-methods.

Next announcement on risk of spill

 The risk of spill in the Murray system in 2021/22 will be updated on Monday January 10, 2022.

 For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.

Refer to www.mdba.gov.au/river-information/water-sharing for Victoria’s share of Murray storages.

10 November 2021 - Low risk of spill declared for the Goulburn system

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today declared a low risk of spill in the Goulburn system.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the risk of spill in the Goulburn system during 2021/22 had fallen below the 10 per cent threshold needed for a declaration, but the risk in the Murray system remained greater than 10 per cent.

“Although Lake Eildon is above 85 per cent of capacity, the risk of spill in the Goulburn system during 2021/22 is now less than 10 per cent,” Dr Bailey said.

“Goulburn customers will have the water in their spillable accounts made available for use or trade.

“In the Murray system, Lake Hume releases to manage the storage close to full supply have ceased in recent weeks as downstream demand began to increase. With further rainfall, releases may need to restart as flows into the storage increase and demand slows.

“Further deductions from the spillable water accounts will be confirmed in the November 15 seasonal determination update to account for releases made since mid-October."

Dr Bailey reiterated the risk of spill assessment related to water accounting and did not describe the chances of flooding in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems this season.

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. While the risk of spill at Lake Hume is effectively 100 per cent, the risk of spill at Dartmouth is less than 5 per cent and this is where trade adjustments will occur.

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria as this would increase the risk at Dartmouth to about 10 per cent. This volume will be updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the  Victorian Water Register website.

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray and Goulburn systems in 2021/22 will be updated on Friday 10 December 2021.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.

The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at the  MDBA website..

11 October 2021 - Low risk of spill declared for the Campaspe system

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today declared a low risk of spill in the Campaspe system.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the risk of spill in the Murray and Goulburn systems during 2021/22 remained above the 10 per threshold needed to declare a low risk of spill.

“The risk of spill in the Campaspe system during 2021/22 is less than 10 per cent,” Dr Bailey said.

“Campaspe customers will have the water in their spillable accounts made available for use or trade.

“In the Murray system, the Murray-Darling Basin Authority [MDBA] has continued to manage Lake Hume close to full supply.

"The releases from the storage are treated as a spill and have previously caused a deduction of 89 gigalitres from spillable water accounts on October 1.

“The next deduction from the spillable water accounts will be confirmed in the October 15 seasonal determination update. 

"The risk of spill from Lake Eildon in the Goulburn system is about 15 per cent." 

Dr Bailey reiterated the risk of spill assessment related to water accounting and did not describe the chances of flooding in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems this season.

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. While the risk of spill at Lake Hume is effectively 100 per cent, the risk of spill at Dartmouth is about 5 per cent and this is where trade adjustments will occur.

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria as this would increase the risk at Dartmouth to about 30 per cent. This volume will be updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the Victorian Water Register website.

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray and Goulburn systems in 2021/22 will be updated on Wednesday 10 November 2021.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.

The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at the  MDBA website.

10 September 2021 - 2021/22 Risk of Spill update for Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2021/22 risk of spill for each of the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.

Resource Manager Dr Mark Bailey said releases to manage storage levels at Lake Hume was the focus of this month’s update.

“The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) restarted pre-releases of water from Lake Hume on 3 September,” Dr Bailey said.

“This action helped control the rate of rise as water flowed into the storage and the MDBA have transitioned into managing the storage level close to full supply.

“The pre-releases made from Lake Hume in August reduced the volume of rules-based accounts only. The September pre-releases will again affect those accounts, but may cause deductions from spillable water accounts if the volume released is large enough.

“Any deductions from spillable water accounts will be determined in early October and included in the October 15 seasonal determination assessment.

“The situation for the two other spillable water systems is quite different. In the Goulburn system, the risk of spill from Lake Eildon is about 20 per cent and the risk of spill is also about 20 per cent from Lake Eppalock in the Campaspe system.”

Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment related to water accounting and did not describe the chances of flooding in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems this season.

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. While the risk of spill at Lake Hume is effectively 100 per cent, the risk of spill at Dartmouth is about 10 per cent and this is where trade adjustments will occur.

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria as this would increase the risk at Dartmouth to about 40 per cent. This volume will be updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the  Victorian Water Register website.

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in 2021/22 will be updated on Monday 11 October 2021.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.

The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au/river-information/water-sharing.

10 August 2021 - 2021/22 Risk of Spill update for Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2021/22 risk of spill for each of the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.

Resource Manager Dr Mark Bailey said rapid increases in the volume of Lake Hume led this month’s update.

“The Murray-Darling Basin Authority [MDBA] started pre-releasing water from Lake Hume on 6 August,” said Dr Bailey. “This action helps control the rate of rise as water flows into the storage.

“The Hume pre-releases trigger spills from specific resources in the Murray system,” added Dr Bailey. “The deductions will be assessed when the MDBA confirms the volume released.

“Victorian entitlement holders should note that there are other accounts such as the rules‑based Barmah-Millewa Forest Environmental Water Allocation that are debited before any water is deducted from spillable water accounts,” said Dr Bailey. “Around 150 GL to 180 GL of Victorian resource will spill before spillable water accounts are affected.”

“Any deductions from spillable water accounts will be determined in early September and included in the September 15 seasonal determination assessment.”

“In the Goulburn system, the risk of spill from Lake Eildon is about 30 per cent and the risk of spill is about 20 per cent from Lake Eppalock in the Campaspe system.”

Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment related to water accounting and did not describe the chances of flooding in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems this season.

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. While the risk of spill at Lake Hume is effectively 100 per cent, the risk of spill at Dartmouth is less than 5 per cent and this is where trade adjustments will occur.

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria as this would increase the risk at Dartmouth to about 15 per cent. This volume will be updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the Victorian Water Register website waterregister.vic.gov.au/about/news/267-trial-of-improved-trade-adjustment-methods.

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in 2021/22 will be updated on Friday September 10, 2021. 

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.

The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au/river-information/water-sharing.

12 July 2021 - 2021/22 Risk of Spill update for Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2021/22 risk of spill for each of the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.

Resource Manager Dr Mark Bailey said end of June storage and inflow data was used to update the risks of spill after the July 1, 2021 assessment.

“Victoria’s share of the volume in Lake Hume gives the Murray system about a 40 per cent risk of spill,” Dr Bailey said.

“The risk of spill from Lake Eildon in the Goulburn system is about 30 per cent and the risk of spill is about 40 per cent from Lake Eppalock in the Campaspe system.”

Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment did not describe the chances of flooding in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems this season.

“The risk of spill is a water accounting assessment. It does not refer to flood risks downstream of the storages," Dr Bailey said.

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent.

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria. This volume will be updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the Victorian Water Register website .

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in 2021/22 will be updated on Tuesday 10 August 2021.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.

The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website.