2021/22 Risk of Spill Announcements

10 September 2021 - 2021/22 Risk of Spill update for Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2021/22 risk of spill for each of the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.

Resource Manager Dr Mark Bailey said releases to manage storage levels at Lake Hume was the focus of this month’s update.

“The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) restarted pre-releases of water from Lake Hume on 3 September,” Dr Bailey said.

“This action helped control the rate of rise as water flowed into the storage and the MDBA have transitioned into managing the storage level close to full supply.

“The pre-releases made from Lake Hume in August reduced the volume of rules-based accounts only. The September pre-releases will again affect those accounts, but may cause deductions from spillable water accounts if the volume released is large enough.

“Any deductions from spillable water accounts will be determined in early October and included in the October 15 seasonal determination assessment.

“The situation for the two other spillable water systems is quite different. In the Goulburn system, the risk of spill from Lake Eildon is about 20 per cent and the risk of spill is also about 20 per cent from Lake Eppalock in the Campaspe system.”

Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment related to water accounting and did not describe the chances of flooding in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems this season.

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. While the risk of spill at Lake Hume is effectively 100 per cent, the risk of spill at Dartmouth is about 10 per cent and this is where trade adjustments will occur.

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria as this would increase the risk at Dartmouth to about 40 per cent. This volume will be updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the  Victorian Water Register website.

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in 2021/22 will be updated on Monday 11 October 2021.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.

The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au/river-information/water-sharing.

 

10 August 2021 - 2021/22 Risk of Spill update for Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2021/22 risk of spill for each of the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.

Resource Manager Dr Mark Bailey said rapid increases in the volume of Lake Hume led this month’s update.

“The Murray-Darling Basin Authority [MDBA] started pre-releasing water from Lake Hume on 6 August,” said Dr Bailey. “This action helps control the rate of rise as water flows into the storage.

“The Hume pre-releases trigger spills from specific resources in the Murray system,” added Dr Bailey. “The deductions will be assessed when the MDBA confirms the volume released.

“Victorian entitlement holders should note that there are other accounts such as the rules‑based Barmah-Millewa Forest Environmental Water Allocation that are debited before any water is deducted from spillable water accounts,” said Dr Bailey. “Around 150 GL to 180 GL of Victorian resource will spill before spillable water accounts are affected.”

“Any deductions from spillable water accounts will be determined in early September and included in the September 15 seasonal determination assessment.”

“In the Goulburn system, the risk of spill from Lake Eildon is about 30 per cent and the risk of spill is about 20 per cent from Lake Eppalock in the Campaspe system.”

Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment related to water accounting and did not describe the chances of flooding in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems this season.

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. While the risk of spill at Lake Hume is effectively 100 per cent, the risk of spill at Dartmouth is less than 5 per cent and this is where trade adjustments will occur.

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria as this would increase the risk at Dartmouth to about 15 per cent. This volume will be updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the Victorian Water Register website waterregister.vic.gov.au/about/news/267-trial-of-improved-trade-adjustment-methods.

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in 2021/22 will be updated on Friday September 10, 2021. 

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.

The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au/river-information/water-sharing.

 

12 July 2021 - 2021/22 Risk of Spill update for Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2021/22 risk of spill for each of the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems.

Resource Manager Dr Mark Bailey said end of June storage and inflow data was used to update the risks of spill after the July 1, 2021 assessment.

“Victoria’s share of the volume in Lake Hume gives the Murray system about a 40 per cent risk of spill,” Dr Bailey said.

“The risk of spill from Lake Eildon in the Goulburn system is about 30 per cent and the risk of spill is about 40 per cent from Lake Eppalock in the Campaspe system.”

Dr Bailey said the risk of spill assessment did not describe the chances of flooding in the Murray, Goulburn or Campaspe systems this season.

“The risk of spill is a water accounting assessment. It does not refer to flood risks downstream of the storages," Dr Bailey said.

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent.

The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria. This volume will be updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade opportunities and a trial of improved trade adjustment methods on the Victorian Water Register website .

Next announcement on risk of spill

The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in 2021/22 will be updated on Tuesday 10 August 2021.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit www.nvrm.net.au.

The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website.