Seasonal Determinations for 2013/14 Updated

Announcement Date: 16 Sep 2013
Next Announcement Due: 1 Oct 2013

Determination Data

Seasonal determinations for northern Victoria regulated river systems.

  High Reliability Water Share Change to High Reliability Water Share Low Reliability Water Share Comments
Murray 100% +34% 0% Not declared
Broken 45% +3% 0% -
Goulburn 100% 0% 0% Not declared
Campaspe 100% 0% 0% Not declared
Loddon 100% 0% 0% -
Bullarook Creek 52% +32% 0% -

Further Information

The Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems today announced an update to the seasonal determinations for the 2013/14 season.

The Murray system seasonal determination is 100% of high-reliability water shares (HRWS), an increase of 34%. The Broken system seasonal determination is up by 3% to be 45% HRWS. The Bullarook system seasonal determination is 52% HRWS, an increase of 32%.

The Campaspe, Goulburn and Loddon system seasonal determinations are unchanged at 100% HRWS.

“Useful inflows to the northern Victorian storages have continued despite the recent dry and warmer weather,” said Dr Mark Bailey, Resource Manager. “The increased seasonal determinations in the Broken and Bullarook systems are due to inflows, while the improvement of the Murray system to 100% HRWS is due to both inflows and the reduction of spillable water accounts caused by spill from Lake Hume.”

“Under Victorian water accounting rules, pre-releases made prior to the declaration of a low risk of spill reduce the volume in spillable water accounts to allow all inflows to contribute to increased seasonal determinations. The total volume spilled from Victoria’s share of Lake Hume during August was confirmed to be 354 gigalitres (GL). This volume will be deducted proportionally from spillable water accounts and environmental water accounts in the Murray system and contributed, along with inflows, to the seasonal determination announced today. A reduction will also occur in October because pre-releases from Lake Hume have continued this month.”

Dr Bailey added, “No spills have yet occurred from Lake Eildon in the Goulburn system or from Lake Eppalock in the Campaspe system. However, the risk of spill is high in both systems.”

Outlook for the 2013/14 Season

“Seasonal determinations against low-reliability water shares (LRWS) in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems will depend on usage and the volume of inflows for the remaining months,” said Dr Bailey. “The chances of LRWS seasonal determinations improve if inflows cause debits from spillable water accounts and water is used during periods of unregulated flows without release from storage.”

Under average conditions, seasonal determinations against LRWS in the Campaspe system should commence in mid spring. Broken system customers are expected to have 100% HRWS from mid October 2013 and 100% LRWS from mid December even under dry conditions.

Trading Opportunities

With the probability of spill in the Victorian Murray system greater than 50%, the volume of trade into Victoria from New South Wales is limited to the volume of trade from Victoria to New South Wales. The availability of trade into Victoria from New South Wales will be reassessed on 10 October 2013 and the 10th day (or following business day) of each month thereafter. This limit is part of the trade controls announced in November 2012 to prevent trade impacting on new season allocations.

The volume of water owed to the Murray system from the Goulburn system in the inter-valley trade account is 192 GL. Trade will not be allowed from the Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems to the Victorian Murray, or to New South Wales and South Australia, if the volume of water owed to the Murray is more than 200 GL. Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website

Customers participating in the water trading market are reminded that the Murray-Darling Basin Authority has relaxed the rule controlling allocation trade from upstream of the Barmah Choke to downstream users. The Murray-Darling Basin Authority will regularly review the ability to trade across the Barmah Choke and may lift the relaxation at any time during the season.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The next seasonal determination announcement will be released on Tuesday 1 October 2013.
  • The probability of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Thursday 10 October 2013

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations and resource availability, please visit

The volumes in Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe spillable water accounts are available from the Victorian Water Register ( using the “Unused Water” option. The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at Total volumes in Lake Hume, Lake Eildon and Lake Eppalock are reported at