Seasonal Determination - 16 November 2015

Announcement Date: 16 Nov 2015
Next Announcement Due: 1 Dec 2015

Determination Data

Seasonal determinations for northern Victoria regulated river systems.

  High Reliability Water Share Change to High Reliability Water Share Comments
Murray 90% +5% Declared 10 September 2015
Broken 17% +8% -
Goulburn 80% +5% Declared 1 July 2015
Campaspe 55% +3% Declared 1 July 2015
Loddon 62% +6% -
Bullarook Creek 4% 0% -

Further Information

Seasonal determination update

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced increased 2015/16 seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn, Broken, Campaspe and Loddon systems.

The Murray system increases by five per cent to 90 per cent high-reliability water shares (HRWS) and the Goulburn system increases by five per cent to 80 per cent HRWS.

The Broken system increases by eight per cent to 17 per cent HRWS and the Campaspe system increases by three per cent to 55 per cent HRWS. The Loddon system increases by six per cent to 62 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the Bullarook system remained unchanged on four per cent HRWS.

“Rainfall over the last fortnight has been very welcome. While the rainfall did not increase inflows to the storages significantly, the current inflows are greater than the volume assumed in the previous assessment,” Dr Bailey said.

“The other benefits of the rainfall are the short-term reduction of system operating requirements and lower evaporation from storages.

“Each of these factors contributed to the increases announced today.

“Unfortunately, the Bullarook system did not receive the same benefits from the rainfall and no increase was possible for this update.”

Outlook for the 2015/16 season

“Inflows into the Murray, Goulburn, Broken, Loddon and Campaspe systems during October were close to the ‘Extreme Dry’ category,” said Dr Bailey.

The full inflow record was used to assess seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:

Wet: Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or one chance in 10) of being exceeded.
Average: Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or five chances in 10) of being exceeded.
Dry: Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or nine chances in 10) of being exceeded.
Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes that have 99 chances in 100 (or 9.9 chances in 10) of being exceeded.

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Campaspe and Broken systems through the 2015/16 season. 

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 December 2015 15 February 2016
Wet 100% 100%
Average 100% 100%
Dry 94% 100%
Extreme Dry 90% 92%

 

Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 December 2015 15 February 2016
Wet 100% 100%
Average 90% 100%
Dry 82% 87%
Extreme Dry 80% 82%

 

Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 December 2015 15 February 2016
Wet 100% 100%
Average 71% 90%
Dry 62% 63%
Extreme Dry 62% 62%

 

Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 December 2015 15 February 2016
Wet 79% 96%
Average 58% 62%
Dry 55% 56%
Extreme Dry 55% 55%

 

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Inflow Conditions 15 December 2015 15 February 2016
Wet 86% 100%
Average 34% 58%
Dry 20% 26%
Extreme Dry 17% 17%

2015/16 Low-Reliability Water Share Outlooks

Details about the chances for seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares will be included when seasonal determinations reach 100 per cent of high-reliability water shares.

Trading Opportunities

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 95 GL to the Murray system on November 16. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The spill risk limit allows more than 200 GL of trade, and so the net annual volume of 200 GL applies unless advised otherwise.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website, waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-trading/allocation-trading.

Standard Murray-Darling Basin Authority policy prohibits the net trade of allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream to protect delivery of downstream water entitlements. However, there is currently about 165 GL of capacity available to trade from upstream to downstream. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website at www.mdba.gov.au/river-data/barmah-choke.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The next 2015/16 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Tuesday December 1, 2015.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations, resource availability and carryover volumes, please visit www.nvrm.net.au. The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au/what-we-do/managing-rivers/river-murray-system/water-sharing.

Information about El Niño is available from the Bureau of Meteorology at www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso.

Details of the November to January rainfall outlook and seasonal streamflow forecasts are available at www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks.