Seasonal Determination - 2 November 2015

Determination Data

Seasonal determinations for northern Victoria regulated river systems.

Further Information

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced increased 2015/16 seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn, Broken and Campaspe systems.

The Murray system increases by three per cent to 85 per cent high-reliability water shares (HRWS) and the Goulburn system increases by three per cent to 75 per cent HRWS.

The Broken system increases by one per cent to 9 per cent HRWS and the Campaspe system increases by one per cent to 52 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the Loddon system remained unchanged on 56 per cent HRWS and the Bullarook system remained unchanged on 4 per cent HRWS.

“Inflows into the storages remain very low,” said Dr Bailey. “The increases announced today have come from conditions being slightly better than forecast in our assessments, rather than improvements due to rain and inflows.

“The Murray and Goulburn systems’ seasonal determinations increased because inflows were a little better than assumed in both systems,” said Dr Bailey.

“The increases in the Broken and Campaspe systems came from lower than expected evaporation and river operating requirements.

“Inflows and operating requirements in the Loddon and Bullarook systems have been close to our assumptions and increases in these systems have not been possible for this update.”

Trading opportunities

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 95 GL to the Murray system on October 1. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The spill risk limit allows more than 200 GL of trade, and so the net annual volume of 200 GL applies unless advised otherwise.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website, waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-trading/allocation-trading  

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority is limiting the trading of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website at www.mdba.gov.au/river-data/barmah-choke

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

• The next 2015/16 seasonal determination announcement including an updated outlook will be released on Monday November 16, 2015.

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations, resource availability and carryover volumes, please visit www.nvrm.net.au. The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au.

Information about El Niño is available from the Bureau of Meteorology at www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso.

Details of the November to January rainfall outlook and seasonal streamflow forecasts are available at www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks.