Murray, Goulburn and Loddon seasonal determinations increase

Determination Data

Seasonal determinations for northern Victoria regulated river systems.

Further Information

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced increased 2015/16 seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems.

The Murray system increases by 2 per cent to 37 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS).

The Goulburn system increases by 3 per cent to 45 per cent HRWS and the Loddon system increases from 37 per cent HRWS to 39 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the Broken and Bullarook systems remained unchanged on zero per cent HRWS and the Campaspe system remained unchanged on 50 per cent HRWS.

"Parts of northern Victoria received useful rainfall last week, but inflows to the major storages did not improve much," Dr Bailey said. "The catchments needs more rain before large inflows will occur.

"Today’s increases come from conditions being slightly better than assumed in our previous assessment. Larger increases are not possible at the moment as the resource improvements needed are not happening."

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Wednesday, July 15 are:

Outlook for the 2015/16 season

"Inflows to the northern Victorian systems remain near the ‘Dry’ outlook category," Dr Bailey said.

"This is consistent with recent seasonal rainfall and streamflow forecasts issued by the Bureau of Meteorology."

The full inflow record was used to assess seasonal determinations for a range of inflow scenarios. The scenarios for different inflow conditions were produced using the following terminology:

Wet: Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or one chance in 10) of being exceeded.

Average: Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or five chances in 10) of being exceeded.

Dry: Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or nine chances in 10) of being exceeded

Extreme Dry: Inflow volumes that have 99 chances in 100 (or 9.9 chances in 10) of being exceeded

The following tables summarise possible HRWS seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon, Campaspe and Broken systems through the 2015/16 season.

Murray System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Goulburn System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Loddon System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Campaspe System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

Broken System Outlook for Seasonal Determination of High-Reliability Water Shares

2015/16 Low-Reliability Water Share Outlooks

Reserves for 2015/16 are lower than in recent years and there is a reduced chance of seasonal determinations of low-reliability water shares in all systems. Inflows and use will define if seasonal determinations of low reliability water shares occur in 2015/16.

Trading Opportunities

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account now owes about 90 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill limit allows 140 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.

Trading opportunities from New South Wales to Victoria are next updated on August 10, 2015.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website, waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-trading/allocation-trading .

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority is limiting the trading of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website www.mdba.gov.au/river-data/barmah-choke.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

• The next 2015/16 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday August 3, 2015.
• The next risk of spill in the Murray system will be issued on Monday August 10, 2015

For information about the Resource Manager for northern Victorian regulated water systems, including seasonal determinations, resource availability and carryover volumes, please visit www.nvrm.net.au. The status of Victorian shares of Murray storages is available at www.mdba.gov.au.

Information about El Niño is available from the Bureau of Meteorology at www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso.

Details of the July to September rainfall outlook are available at www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks.