Seasonal Determination update

Tuesday 15 November, 2016

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced an increase to 2016/17 seasonal determinations in the Broken system.

The low-reliability water share (LRWS) seasonal determination in the Broken system increases from 61 per cent to 100 per cent.

The Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems remain unchanged at 100 per cent high-reliability water share (HRWS). The Campaspe and the Bullarook systems remain unchanged at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent LRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said drier conditions over the last four weeks had reduced the rate of improvement of water resource availability across northern Victoria.

“With little rainfall for the past four weeks, the inflows into all systems are lower but remain useful,” Dr Bailey said.

“The increased Broken system seasonal determination is due to inflows meeting in-valley needs.

“The lower inflows mean the shortfalls to allocating low-reliability water shares in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems have only reduced slightly since the last assessment on October 17. The current shortfalls are about 600 gigalitres in both the Murray and Goulburn systems.

“Low-reliability water shares cannot be allocated in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems until reserves to supply 100 per cent of high-reliability water shares in 2017/18 are established.

“We need more water in storage and fewer supply commitments.

“That means more water stored in Dartmouth Dam, the Menindee Lakes and Lake Eildon, and deliveries of allocation. There is still a large supply commitment in the Murray and Goulburn systems because water use has been very low with the very wet conditions in September and October.”

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Tuesday, November 15 are:

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 100% 0%
Broken 100% 100%
Goulburn 100% 0%
Campaspe 100% 100%
Loddon 100% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

 

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. As the risk of spill in the Murray system is above 50 per cent, trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the volume traded from Victoria to New South Wales since November 1, 2016.

Trading opportunities from New South Wales to Victoria are next updated on December 12, 2016.

Trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia from the Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems is restricted as the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than 200 GL.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website.

The trading of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Barmah Choke is restricted to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website. Trade from upstream of the Barmah Choke to downstream is restricted to backtrade, which is the volume of allocation trade from downstream of the Barmah Choke to upstream.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next risk of spill update for the Murray system will be released on Monday 12 December 2016.
  • The next 2016/17 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Thursday 15 December 2016.