Seasonal determination update for 2017/18

Wednesday 1 November, 2017

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2017/18 seasonal determinations.

The Goulburn system and the Loddon system both increase from 91 per cent to 93 per cent high-reliability water shares (HRWS).

The Broken system increases from 50 per cent to 100 per cent HRWS.

The low-reliability water share (LRWS) seasonal determination in the Campaspe system increases from 29 per cent to 30 per cent. The Campaspe system also has 100 per cent HRWS.

The seasonal determination in the Murray system remains unchanged 100 per cent HRWS and the Bullarook system remains at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent LRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said carryover rules and the volumes carried over into 2017/18 influenced the large improvement for the Broken system announced today.

“Entitlement holders in the Broken system carried over the equivalent of a 41 per cent seasonal determination of high-reliability water shares into 2017/18,” Dr Bailey said.

“As entitlement holders may only carry over 50 per cent of their high-reliability water shares, the resource improvement needed to reach 100 per cent of high-reliability water shares was quite low.

“This was achieved with the small inflows and a reduction of operating commitments since the previous seasonal determination update.”

In the Murray system, the Resource Manager has repaid all the water borrowed from the Barmah Forest account.

“Water was borrowed from the Barmah Forest to improve early seasonal determinations for Murray system high-reliability water shares,” Dr Bailey said.

“Now that the borrowed water is repaid, the November 15 update will include an assessment of the resource improvement needed for a seasonal determination against low-reliability water shares.”

Dr Bailey also advised that Victoria may not be able to store all the flows into its share of Lake Hume during October.

“Victoria’s share of Lake Hume could be full at the end of October. If confirmed by the Murray Darling Basin Authority (MDBA), a deduction from Murray system spillable water accounts will be needed,” Dr Bailey said.

“The status of Victoria’s share during October will be confirmed with the next risk of spill announcement on November 10."


The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Wednesday, November 1 are:

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 100% 0%
Broken 100% 0%
Goulburn 93% 0%
Campaspe 100% 30%
Loddon 93% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

 

Trading Opportunities


Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. As the risk of spill in the Murray system is above 50 per cent, trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the volume traded from Victoria to New South Wales. Trading opportunities are next updated on November 10, 2017.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 264 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website, http://www.waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-trading/allocation-trading Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the Murray-Darling Basin Authority website at http://www.mdba.gov.au/managing-water/water-markets-trade/barmah-choke-trade-restriction

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements


• The risk of spill in the Murray and Campaspe systems is updated on Friday November 10, 2017
• The 2017/18 seasonal determinations are updated on Wednesday November 15, 2017.