Opening seasonal determinations and risk of spill assessment for 2017/18

Monday 3 July, 2017

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced the first 2017/18 seasonal determination, an updated outlook, and the first risk of spill assessments for the new water year.

The Murray system starts 2017/18 with a seasonal determination of 66 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS). The Goulburn and Loddon systems both start with 36 per cent HRWS.

The Campaspe system starts 2017/18 with a seasonal determination of 100 per cent HRWS.

The Broken system starts 2017/18 with 1 per cent HRWS and the Bullarook system starts with 0 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the seasonal determinations came largely from system reserves built during 2016/17.

“Northern Victorian systems have seen mostly dry conditions over the last six months,” said Dr Bailey. “The seasonal determinations announced today are due to reserves established during the very wet first half of 2016/17.

“June was very dry and water resource availability did not improve at all during the month.

“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates below-average rainfall across all of northern Victoria will continue during the July to September period,” Dr Bailey said. “The Bureau says it is unlikely that an El Niño event will develop this year, but other climate drivers are affecting weather patterns.”

Dr Bailey said the dry outlook would not affect water deliveries in any northern Victorian water system.

“Carried over allocation can be delivered in the Bullarook system, even without a seasonal determination,” Dr Bailey said.

Dr Bailey advised entitlement holders to use the seasonal determination outlooks and weather information when planning their water needs in 2017/18.

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, July 3 are:

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 66% 0%
Broken 1% 0%
Goulburn 36% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 36% 0%
Bullarook 0% 0%

Trading Opportunities

Allocation trade applications will start to be processed from 10:00 am on July 10, 2017 once the Victorian Water Register opens for the new water year.

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. As the risk of spill in the Murray system is above 50 per cent, trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the volume traded from Victoria to New South Wales.

Trading opportunities from New South Wales to Victoria are next updated on July 10, 2017.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 170 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Trade from the Broken system re-opens at the start of each water year and is allowed when the Broken system’s IVT account owes less than 1,500 ML to the Goulburn system.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website, waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-trading/allocation-trading, from July 10, 2017 when the Water Register reopens. Additional information about how trade opportunities are calculated has recently been added to the allocation trading page waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-trading/allocation-trading#AllocationTradeOpportunities.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) has announced that trading of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke is restricted to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA website www.mdba.gov.au/managing-water/water-markets-trade/barmah-choke-trade-restriction.

Upcoming Resource Manager Announcements

  • The next risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be issued on Monday 10 July 2017.
  • The next 2017/18 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 17 July 2017 and will include an updated outlook.