Seasonal determination update - 1 November 2018

Thursday 1 November, 2018

2018/19 seasonal determinations update

The northern Victoria Resource Manager today updated 2018/19 seasonal determinations.

The Murray system moves from 84 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 89 per cent HRWS.

The Goulburn system and the Loddon system increase from 77 per cent HRWS to 82 per cent HRWS.

The seasonal determination in the Broken system increases from 14 per cent HRWS to 17 per cent HRWS.

The Campaspe system remains at 100 per cent HRWS and the Bullarook system remains at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low‑reliability water shares (LRWS).

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said the change in water availability was assisted by recent rain.

"Although the rain during October fell on relatively dry catchments, the flows into the major storages held or increased slightly,” Dr Bailey said.

“Our previous conservative estimates anticipated flows reducing.”

Dr Bailey added that weather conditions will influence any water availability improvements.

“The October rainfall totals were average to below average across much of northern Victoria, with some catchment totals very much below average,” Dr Bailey said.

“Flows into the storages were well below average.

“The catchments are drying and significant rain will be needed to generate large increases in the seasonal determinations in the short term.

“Small improvements will continue if evaporation and river losses remain lower than our estimates, which can occur with some rainfall and cooler temperatures.”

Dr Bailey noted the climate outlooks suggest drier conditions will continue.

“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates below-average rainfall is more likely during the November to January period,” Dr Bailey said.

“The Bureau has issued an El Niño Alert, meaning the chance of an El Niño forming in 2018 is around 70 per cent and there are signs a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is forming. An El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole increases the possibility of dry conditions.”

Dr Bailey urged water users to continue planning their water needs carefully.

“Websites such as the Resource Manager, the Victorian Water Register and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority provide information about water trends and availability, which can help users plan their use," he said.

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Thursday, November 1.
Murray 89% 0%
Broken 17% 0%
Goulburn 82% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 82% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent.

The current risk of spill limit allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 205 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL. Deliveries of Goulburn system IVT to support Murray system operations are planned to continue in November. Information on IVT deliveries is available on the Goulburn-Murray Water website.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website. Additional information about how trade opportunities are calculated is available on the allocation trading page.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2018/19 seasonal determination announcement and updated outlook will be released on Thursday 15 November 2018.