2019/20 seasonal determination and outlook update

Monday 15 July, 2019

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2019/20 seasonal determinations and outlooks.

The Murray system moves from 2 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 6 per cent HRWS.

The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 2 per cent HRWS to 8 per cent HRWS.

The Campaspe system moves from 26 per cent HRWS to 31 per cent HRWS.

The Bullarook system increases from 19 per cent HRWS to 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low‑reliability water shares (LRWS).

Seasonal determinations in the Broken system remain on 0 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Andrew Shields said recent rain in the upper catchment had improved the volume of water available.

“The catchments are responding well to rain and this has contributed to the additional water available to allocate, particularly in the Bullarook system,” Mr Shields said.

“Further rain is required in the other catchments to maintain flows into storages and help increase seasonal determinations.”

Mr Shields noted an update of carryover volumes also contributed to the improvements.

“The reconciliation of the Victorian Water Register found the actual carryover volume was slightly lower than estimated in the Murray system and this contributed to the improvement in the system," he said.

Mr Shields said there was some improvement in the volume of water available in the Broken system, but more was still needed to ensure carried over allocation can be delivered throughout 2019/20.

“There is currently insufficient water to operate the Broken system as usual for the entire 2019/20 season. Carried over allocation will be available early in the season. Resource improvements will increase the period of supply,” Mr Shields said.

“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates below-average rainfall across all of northern Victoria is more likely during the August to October period."

Mr Shields advised water users to consider available weather and climate information in conjunction with the seasonal determination outlooks when planning their water needs in 2019/20.

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, July 15.
Murray 6% 0%
Broken 0% 0%
Goulburn 8% 0%
Campaspe 31% 0%
Loddon 8% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 174 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA's website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2019/20 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Thursday August 1, 2019.