2019/20 seasonal determination update

Thursday 2 January, 2020

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today updated the 2019/20 seasonal determinations.

Seasonal determinations in the Murray system remain unchanged on 56 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS).

The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 64 per cent HRWS to 66 per cent HRWS.

The Campaspe system moves from 63 per cent HRWS to 65 per cent HRWS.

The Broken system seasonal determination remains on 0 per cent HRWS.

The Bullarook system remains on 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low-reliability water shares (LRWS).

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said a range of factors influenced the small improvements in water availability.

“Flows into the Goulburn system storages were slightly higher than forecast and river losses were lower than estimated in the Campaspe system,” said Dr Bailey. “Both of these factors contributed to the increased seasonal determinations announced today for those two systems," Dr Bailey said.

“The volume available to Victoria in the Murray system has not changed in the past fortnight.

“Resources in the Broken system remain insufficient for a seasonal determination.

“The shortfall to announcing a positive seasonal determination remains about 1,900 megalitres and carryover commitments can be supplied throughout the water year.”

 The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlooks do not favour wetter or drier conditions across northern Victoria from January to March.

 Dr Bailey advised water users to consider available weather and climate information in conjunction with the seasonal determination outlooks when planning their water needs in 2019/20.

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Thursday, January 2.
Murray 56% 0%
Broken 0% 0%
Goulburn 66% 0%
Campaspe 65% 0%
Loddon 66% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Murray system below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 231 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL. Deliveries of Goulburn system IVT to support Murray system operations will continue through January. Information on IVT deliveries is available on the Goulburn-Murray Water website, www.gmwater.com.au/water-resources/managing-water-storages.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website, waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-trading/allocation-trading.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA website www.mdba.gov.au/managing-water/water-markets-trade/interstate-water-trade/barmah-choke-trade-balance.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2019/20 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Wednesday January 15, 2020.