Seasonal determination update

Tuesday 1 December, 2020

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced an update to the 2020/21 seasonal determinations.

The Murray system increases from 81 per cent high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 83 per cent HRWS.

Seasonal determinations in the Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems remain at 100 per cent HRWS.

The Broken and Bullarook systems are unchanged at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low-reliability water shares (LRWS).

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said little rain and warmer temperatures in recent weeks has slowed resource improvements.

“Flows into the Murray system were higher than our conservative estimates, despite limited rain,” Dr Bailey said.

“Further rainfall and flows into the Murray system are needed to edge the seasonal determination towards 100 per cent HRWS.”

Dr Bailey said the latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook favours above-average rainfall across the catchment areas for the three month period from December to February.

“The Bureau says La Niña conditions could last until February 2021. A La Niña may support above‑average rainfall across eastern Australia during summer,” Dr Bailey said.

“The volumes are likely to be lower in summer compared to the historical peaks of winter and spring, but the extra resource would be welcome.”

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Tuesday 1 December are:

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 83% 0%
Broken 100% 100%
Goulburn 100% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 100% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria. Customers can find out more about trade adjustments on the Water Register website.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 306 GL to the Murray system. Delivery from the Goulburn and Broken IVT accounts to the River Murray commenced in the second half of November. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.

Conversely, the Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero. Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the  Water Register website.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the  MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2020/21 seasonal determination announcement and Murray outlook will be released on Tuesday 15 December 2020.