Murray seasonal determination update

Monday 1 February, 2021

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced an update to the 2020/21 seasonal determinations.

The Murray system increases from 96 per cent high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 97 per cent HRWS.

Seasonal determinations in the Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems remain at 100 per cent HRWS. 

The Broken and Bullarook systems are unchanged at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low‑reliability water shares (LRWS).

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said there was only a small improvement in the Murray system.

“Recent warm and dry conditions have limited improvements in Murray system water availability,” Dr Bailey said. “The impact of the rain in late January is not yet evident, and any benefits will appear in the February 15 update of seasonal determinations.”

Dr Bailey said the Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook slightly favours above-average rainfall across the catchment areas for the three-month period from February to April.

“The Bureau says the current La Niña event remains active, and although weakening, could influence Australian rainfall patterns until early autumn,” Dr Bailey said.

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, February 1.
Murray 97% 0%
Broken 100% 100%
Goulburn 100% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 100% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria. Customers can find out more about trade adjustments on the  Water Register website.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 222 GL to the Murray system. Deliveries from the Goulburn IVT account to the River Murray will continue through February. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL. 

Conversely, the Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero. Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website Water Register website.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2020/21 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday February 15, 2021.
  • The first outlook for 2021/22 seasonal determinations will be released on Monday February 15, 2021.