Seasonal determination - 15 July 2020

Wednesday 15 July, 2020

Update of seasonal determinations and outlooks for 2020/21

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced an update to the 2020/21 seasonal determinations and outlook.

The Murray system moves from 8 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) to 15 per cent HRWS. The Goulburn and Loddon systems increase from 35 per cent HRWS to 37 per cent HRWS.

The Campaspe system moves from 32 per cent HRWS to 40 per cent HRWS. The Broken system increases from 17 per cent HRWS to 30 per cent HRWS.

Seasonal determinations in the Bullarook system remain on 0 per cent HRWS.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said storage level increases were the main contributor to today’s announcement.

“Flows into the major storages increased the volume of water available for allocation,” Dr Bailey said.

“Improved catchment flows downstream of the major storages have effectively filled mid-river storages such as Waranga Basin in the Goulburn system and Lake Victoria in the Murray system. 

“Future flows into Lake Eildon and Lake Hume will define seasonal determination improvements in the Goulburn and Murray systems until the mid‑river storages and catchment flows begin supplying water in August.

“The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook slightly favours above-average rainfall across the catchment areas during the August to October period. The rainfall outlook for August and September does not favour wetter or drier conditions over the catchment areas. 

“The Bureau has issued a La Niña watch meaning the chance of a La Niña forming is around 50 per cent in late winter or early spring. La Niña events may support rainfall across southeast Australia.”

Dr Bailey advised entitlement holders to use the seasonal determination outlooks and weather information when planning their water needs in 2020/21.

The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Wednesday, July 15 are:

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
Murray 15% 0%
Broken 30% 0%
Goulburn 37% 0%
Campaspe 40% 0%
Loddon 37% 0%
Bullarook 0% 0%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria. This volume will be updated with each risk of spill announcement. Customers can find out more about trade adjustments on the Water Register website.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 233 GL to the Murray system. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL.

The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero.

Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the  Water Register website.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the  MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The next 2020/21 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Monday 3 August 2020.
  • The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems will be updated on Monday 10 August 2020.