No change to seasonal determinations

Monday 15 March, 2021

The Resource Manager for northern Victoria today announced an update to the 2020/21 seasonal determinations.

The seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems remain unchanged at 100 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS). 

The Broken and Bullarook systems remain at 100 per cent HRWS and 100 per cent of low‑reliability water shares (LRWS).

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said there was very little change to water availability over the past month.

“Since the last assessment, there has been very little rainfall and the volume of water reserved for 2021/22 remains relatively unchanged,” Dr Bailey said. “It is very unlikely that any of the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe or Loddon systems will receive an allocation against LRWS this season.” 

The Bureau of Meteorology seasonal rainfall outlook favours slightly above-average rainfall across northern Victoria for the three-month period from April to June.

“The Bureau says the current La Niña event is weakening, but still could influence rainfall across eastern Australia during autumn,” Dr Bailey said.

Water System High-Reliability Water Share Low-Reliability Water Share
The seasonal determinations for northern Victorian water systems on Monday, March 15.
Murray 100% 0%
Broken 100% 100%
Goulburn 100% 0%
Campaspe 100% 0%
Loddon 100% 0%
Bullarook 100% 100%

Trading opportunities

Allocation trade from New South Wales to Victoria is limited to the lesser of a net annual volume of 200 GL or a volume that keeps the risk of spill in the Victoria’s share of the both Hume and Dartmouth reservoirs below 50 per cent. The current risk of spill in the Murray system allows 200 GL of net trade from New South Wales to Victoria. Customers can find out more about trade adjustments on the  Water Register website.

The Goulburn system’s inter-valley trade (IVT) account owes about 200 GL to the Murray system. Deliveries from the Goulburn IVT account to the River Murray will continue through March. The Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade to the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is less than 200 GL. 

Conversely, the Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems can trade from the Victorian Murray system, New South Wales and South Australia while the total volume owed to the Murray system is greater than zero. Customers participating in the water trading market can monitor trade availability on the Water Register website.

The volume in the Broken system’s inter-valley trade account is currently about 1,200 ML. Trade from the Broken system is allowed when the balance of this account is less than 1,500 ML. Further trading opportunities will be available as deliveries from the Broken inter-valley trade account to the Goulburn system are occurring or if backtrade occurs. Customers participating in the water trading market are reminded that allocation trading from the Broken system to other systems is only permitted from July 1 to March 31 in each water year.

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) is restricting trade of water allocations from above the Barmah Choke to downstream of the Choke to protect the delivery of downstream water entitlements. Customers can monitor trading opportunities across the Barmah Choke on the MDBA website.

Upcoming Resource Manager announcements

  • The final 2020/21 seasonal determination announcement will be released on Thursday April 1, 2021.